Exact Bayesian Tracking of Dynamic Network Topologies
TL;DR
This paper develops an exact Bayesian tracker for unweighted, directed graphs using nodal signal observations that yields the full posterior probability distribution over network states at each time step, naturally enabling uncertainty quantification, prediction, and principled decision-making.
Abstract
Tracking the temporal evolution of network topologies is a fundamental challenge in social networks, epidemiology, and sensor systems, among others. This paper develops an exact Bayesian tracker for unweighted, directed graphs using nodal signal observations. This framework yields the full posterior probability distribution over network states at each time step, naturally enabling uncertainty quantification, prediction, and principled decision-making. We model the network dynamics as a Markov process on the Boolean hypercube, where edges transition independently according to a flip probability. For efficient computation, we cast the prediction step as a dyadic convolution, and leverage the Fast Walsh-Hadamard Transform to reduce the computational cost from $\mathcal{O} (4^k)$ to $\mathcal{O} (k 2^k)$, where $k$ is the maximum node degree. When the network transition probabilities are unknown, we develop an Expectation-Maximization framework to learn them from the observed signals. Comprehensive experiments on synthetic and six real-world datasets validate the proposed method and demonstrate its superior tracking accuracy, faster recovery from topological changes, and meaningful uncertainty estimates compared to state-of-the-art and classical baselines.