Satellite-based emissions estimate indicates progress toward China's methane mitigation goals

Monthly methane emissions in China from 2018-2024 based on source-level data.

China is the world's largest source of methane (CH4) emissions and has signalled its intention to incorporate methane into its climate commitments. Designing effective methane-mitigation strategies requires robust estimates of up-to-date emissions, particularly when the pronounced spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of each emission source are considered. However, there is currently an absence of source-level, up-to-date and dynamic CH4 emission estimations in China, constraining the formulation of measurable targets. In this study, we present the Chinese Methane Emissions Database (CMED), a nationwide, source-level, monthly emission inventory covering the period 2018-2024. The CMED provides a comprehensive account of anthropogenic CH₄ emissions in China. Uncertainty analysis of the CMED indicates that CH₄ emission estimates fall within an acceptable range (±3.57%), underscoring the robustness of the dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables more accurate analyses by providing integrated, source-level and temporally explicit information, offering critical support for policy evaluation under China's new round of Nationally Determined Contributions climate commitments released in 2025.

Satellite observations reveal underestimation of CO2 emissions in Africa and the Middle East

Africa and the Middle East contribute significantly to global fossil fuel production, yet the associated carbon emissions from these extraction and processing activities remain insufficiently reported. The current reporting is not only delayed but also heavily reliant on energy consumption statistics that are difficult to verify. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to indirectly infer and map anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions using the coemitted nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions derived from TROPOMI satellite observations. We find that current global inventories underestimate total CO2 emissions by about 30% for Africa and the Middle East. About 35% of this underestimation is related to newly identified CO2 emission sources, which are mainly attributable to oil and gas infrastructure. The analysis reveals that these underestimated emissions could lead to a delay of ∼5 years in achieving the 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution targets in Africa and the Middle East. This study provides an effective tool for constructing an independent carbon emission accounting framework based on satellite observations and offers a scientific database for guiding climate action.

Synergy Between Air Pollution and Carbon Emissions of On-Road Mobile Sources, Evidence from a Typical Southwestern Region in China

The transport sector has emerged as a significant source of greenhouse gases and airborne pollutants. However, few studies have carried out a comprehensive assessment of the synergistic benefits between air pollutant and carbon emission reductions that account for the unique regional characteristics of individual provinces. In this study, we establish nonlinear prediction models for future activity levels of on-road mobile sources by integrating economic and demographic drivers. We then dynamically quantify the co-benefits of simultaneous air pollutant and CO2 abatement under diverse mitigation scenarios. Environmental tax rates and carbon trading prices are combined with conventional elasticity coefficients and coordinate-based methodologies to convert emission cuts into economic advantages. The results show that under the most optimistic scenario, 47.86% of the CO2 emissions could be mitigated, while emissions of NOX may increase by 60.49% in the absence of mitigation strategies (BAU scenario). Marginal CO2 emissions under the ELC scenario indicates a peak around 2027. Elasticity coefficients for all pollutants gradually converge toward 1, indicating that more stringent mitigation efforts enhance co-benefits. Findings in this study could provide essential insights for the co-management of CO2 and air pollutants from road mobile sources in Guangxi and other key regions along the Belt and Road Initiative.

Methane Emissions From Wildfires: Trends and Anomalies

Wildfires emit smoke particles and trace gases including greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, impacting the environment and leading to detrimental impacts on human health and economy. The estimation of spatially and temporally resolved methane emissions from biomass burning (BB) provides critical information in developing measurement‐informed methane inventories. The use of satellite active fire products (fire radiative power) is an effective pathway to investigate wildfire emissions around the world. In this study, the Global BB Emissions Product‐eXtended algorithm is employed to estimate long‐term temporal variation and geographic distribution of methane emissions from BB using satellite observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite. Globally, on average about 19 Megatonnes of BB methane are released to the atmosphere every year, nearly half of it originating from Africa, where BB represents a significant proportion of the total methane emissions. Our findings show that methane emissions from wildfires are substantial and can exceed other source sectors during extreme wildfire events, negating gains from years of emission reductions from anthropogenic sources. The contribution of fires to the methane budget is significant for regions with intense fire activities. Effective wildfire prevention and management could be beneficial to rapidly reduce methane emissions from BB.

The Evolution of Energy Use and CO ₂ Emissions in Mexico: Climate Change – Induced NaTech Risks and Sectoral Insights

India's historical contribution to present-day warming is recent and multi-gas

Quantifying national contributions to present-day warming helps clarify how historical emissions from different countries have shaped global temperature change. This is particularly relevant for India, where rising energy demand and emissions make the country’s future mitigation pathway increasingly important for global efforts to limit warming. Understanding India’s contribution to warming to date, and how it varies across greenhouse gases and emitting sectors, can therefore provide useful context for its future mitigation priorities. Here, we quantify India’s contribution to the 2024 global mean surface temperature change from historical territorial emissions of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O over 1750–2024 using PRIMAP-hist emissions and the FaIR climate model. India contributes approximately 0.047–0.05 °C to 2024 warming, less than the United States, China, the EU27 and Russia among the major emitters considered, but more than several other industrial and emerging economies. Much of India’s contribution has accumulated in recent decades, with the strongest increase occurring after 1990. This rise is driven primarily by CO₂ emissions from the energy sector, while agriculture remains the main source of non-CO₂ warming through CH₄ and N₂O. Overall, CH₄ and N₂O account for roughly one-third to two-fifths of India’s total contribution, giving India a more multi-gas profile than many early industrialised emitters. Although India’s cumulative contribution to present-day warming remains comparatively modest, its rapid recent growth highlights the increasing importance of energy system decarbonisation. Reducing fossil fuel dependence in the energy sector will therefore be central to limiting further growth in India’s warming contribution and supporting progress towards its long-term net-zero target for 2070.