Achieving the European Union’s (EU-27) 2050 climate neutrality goal requires a drastic reduction in transport emissions. This study utilizes the pymedeas2 integrated assessment model to evaluate trade-offs between technology-led and structure-led transitions under both continuous growth and steady-state economic paradigms. Our results reveal that relying primarily on private vehicle electrification falls short of emission targets. The baseline REF-G scenario—following current institutional roadmaps centred on rapid technological substitution and sustained economic growth—maintains a high final energy demand and requires a cumulative extraction of 2.35 Mt of lithium by 2050, claiming nearly 6.4% of current global proven reserves solely for European mobility. Conversely, combining a modal shift toward electrified rail with macroeconomic stabilization (RAIL-SSE) reduces transport final energy demand by 68% relative to the projected 2024 peak and decreases lithium requirements by 57%. This sufficiency-driven pathway achieves the deepest absolute climate mitigation, dropping residual transport emissions to approximately 90 MtCO2/year. Furthermore, despite the front-loaded costs of rail expansion, RAIL-SSE emerges as the least capital-intensive pathway, requiring a total investment of USD 19.83 trillion—a systemic saving of USD 7.27 trillion relative to the REF-G baseline. We conclude that reaching absolute sustainability in the EU transport sector necessitates a policy shift away from resource-intensive green growth strategies toward demand sufficiency and durable public infrastructure.
Decarbonising maritime transport is becoming increasingly challenging amid sustained global trade growth. This study develops a System Dynamics (SD) framework to evaluate a transcontinental green shipping corridor connecting Shanghai, Jebel Ali, and Koper. The model integrates five interconnected stages, including port operations, voyage emissions, alternative fuel production, bunkering infrastructure, and renewable energy deployment. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are modelled using a stock–flow approach incorporating alternative fuels (ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen), energy-efficiency technologies, infrastructure constraints, and feedback-driven adoption mechanisms. The results reveal a pronounced growth–decarbonization paradox. Although the simulated transition pathway combines 23 mitigation measures with approximately 86% adoption of alternative fuels, it does not achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Under an assumed annual traffic growth rate of 2.2%, baseline emissions increase by approximately 80%, progressively offsetting the benefits of technological and operational improvements. Voyage phases account for approximately 96% of total emission reductions, while the bunkering stage emerges as a critical enabling subsystem linking renewable energy generation, fuel production, and vessel fuel demand. The analysis further identifies infrastructure readiness, technology saturation, and declining marginal mitigation benefits as key constraints on long-term decarbonization performance. The findings demonstrate that green shipping corridors should be evaluated as integrated transport–energy systems rather than isolated transport routes. The proposed SD framework provides a transferable tool for analysing corridor-scale decarbonization pathways and supporting evidence-based maritime policy and infrastructure planning.
M. Hero, P. Vidmar, Patrick Vlačič et al.· Frontiers in Marine Science· 0 citations
Global mobility infrastructure is expected to expand significantly, especially in the Global South, potentially requiring a substantial share of the remaining carbon budget. However, the resource use and carbon emissions associated with the anticipated expansion of roads, railways, and other mobility infrastructure, as well as the potential of mitigation measures, have so far not been explored systematically. Using high-resolution infrastructure and mobility data, we assess seven demand- and four supply-side circular economy and decarbonization measures aiming to mitigate resource use and associated embodied CO2 emissions. We find that without demand reduction, infrastructure stocks could double or triple by 2060, with cumulative emissions reaching 10 to 20 GtCO2. We find that a global shift to rail would increase embodied emissions to 37 GtCO2 due to carbon-intensive materials. Combining mobility reduction with enhanced recycling and industrial decarbonization can cut emissions by 63% while providing adequate global infrastructure. This would help to offset increases in emissions from public transport infrastructure expansion required to reduce operational emissions.
A. Baumgart, Gamze Ünlü, Benedikt Grammer et al.· Journal of Industrial Ecolog...· 0 citations
China’s road transport, especially private vehicles, has experienced continuous growth in energy consumption and carbon emissions in recent years. Electrification-driven net-zero pathways and their impacts on the power sector have drawn broad concern. Current research insufficiently explores vehicle-to-grid (V2G) advantages and fails to update data and assumptions aligned with the latest policies. This study establishes a provincial bottom-up model to calculate the energy demand and carbon emissions of private vehicles and evaluates decarbonization paths and their impacts on the power sector across different scenarios. Private vehicle ownership will rise first and then fall, hitting around 453 million by 2060. Near-term improvements in energy efficiency combined with the long-term diffusion of new energy vehicles can drive private transport toward net-zero emissions after 2050. Vehicle electrification raises electricity consumption remarkably, whereas V2G effectively mitigates carbon shift and offsets over half of cumulative power generation emissions. Marked regional disparities prevail in vehicle usage and emissions, with eastern China presenting higher values compared with western regions. Decarbonization of road transport is more than just addressing carbon shifting, and V2G facilitates cross-sector coordinated emission reduction. Future research is needed to explore the technical, economic and institutional potential for deepening decarbonization.
Road freight transport is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the European Union, yet the relationships between economic growth, transport energy-use performance, and emissions remain insufficiently understood, particularly in the context of cross-country differences in environmental conditions and climate policy. While existing research has extensively examined the energy-growth-environment nexus, limited attention has been given to freight transport as a distinct sector and to heterogeneity across EU countries. This study develops an empirical framework to examine both direct and indirect links between economic growth, transport energy-use performance, and emissions. Using panel data for 24 EU countries over the period 1990-2021, the analysis applies Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) models, complemented by clustering and mediation techniques, to account for cross-country heterogeneity and transmission mechanisms. The results show that economic growth significantly increases GHG emissions, while improvements in transport energy-use performance reduce emissions, especially in less environmentally advanced countries. At the same time, improved transport energy-use performance partially offsets the impact of economic growth, supporting the presence of a mediation mechanism. Moreover, the effect of economic growth on emissions is weaker in countries with more advanced green transport and policy profiles, indicating partial decoupling between growth and environmental pressure. These findings suggest that economic growth alone cannot ensure emission reductions in the road freight sector. Effective decarbonisation therefore requires a combination of technological improvements and well-designed policy measures that promote more efficient energy use and reduce emission intensity, including environmental taxation and fleet modernisation incentives.
B. Suproń, P. Trojanowski· Journal of Environmental Man...· 0 citations
Southeast Asia's steel sector faces the dual challenge of expanding production to meet rising demand while reducing carbon emissions. This study develops a bottom-up cost minimization model with 19 steelmaking technologies for six Southeast Asian countries over 2020-2070 and applies a three-dimensional scenario design that varies carbon pricing, technology cooperation, and infrastructure readiness at two levels each, yielding nine scenarios including a business-as-usual scenario (SC0). Rather than treating the three dimensions as strictly independent, we use the design to diagnose how they interact along a combined axis of policy ambition. Without climate policy, BF-BOF expansion locks in rising emission intensity, reaching 1.14 tCO2/t by 2040, 18% above the 2020 level. Under the most favorable policy combination, emissions fall by 67% from SC0 by 2050. Carbon pricing contributes the largest emission reduction at 27.1 percentage points on average but raises costs. Infrastructure readiness adds 20.9 pp while simultaneously lowering costs. Technology cooperation adds 2.4 pp of emission reduction and delivers a 6 to 9% cost saving, and diversifies the technology mix during the transition. Deep decarbonization at 67% reduction is achieved at no higher per-tonne cost than shallow decarbonization at 17% reduction when infrastructure and cooperation accompany carbon pricing, indicating that the perceived trade-off between emission ambition and cost is largely an artifact of incomplete policy packages. These findings suggest that Southeast Asian governments should prioritize hydrogen and electricity infrastructure investment before or alongside carbon pricing, and that regional cooperation frameworks can be used to accelerate technology transfer and reduce transition costs.
T. Jung, Yoonha Lee, Hyunkyung Joo et al.· Environmental Research Lette...· 0 citations
As a critical enabler of global commerce, the maritime industry is under increasing pressure to significantly reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in line with international climate objectives. Currently, shipping accounts for nearly 3% of the world’s total emissions, positioning decarbonization as not just a regulatory obligation, but also an ethical and economic necessity. Recognizing this, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set ambitious climate goals-most notably, a commitment to cut GHG emissions from ships by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008 levels (International Maritime Organization [IMO], 2023). Meeting this target will require a sweeping transformation, including a shift toward low- and zero-carbon fuels such as hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and next-generation biofuels. Moreover, the adoption of cleaner propulsion technologies, enhanced energy efficiency systems, and more sustainable operational practices will be crucial. This paper delves into the technological innovations, regulatory frameworks, and economic implications of maritime decarbonization, highlighting the importance of global coordination, consistent policy support, and active stakeholder engagement to achieve a just and sustainable energy transition in the shipping sector.
Shyamala Shukla, Suyesha S· International journal of re...· 0 citations
