Heterogeneous compositional data may be simultaneously affected by missing values and atypical points, posing challenges for both clustering and outlier detection. We develop a mixture model for incomplete compositional data under Huber's contamination model, with contamination defined directly on the simplex and on observations that may be missing at random. The model provides a principled representation of outliers and allows the distribution of missing parts to be derived while accounting for contamination. We establish that maximisation of the observed log-likelihood constructed from contaminated, mean-parametrised Dirichlet densities is a convex optimisation problem. We then develop a tailored expectation-maximisation. The E-step incorporates the moments from the distribution of the missing parts of the data. Although the resulting parameter estimates are not available in closed form, the maximisation step admits tractable element-wise iterative updates. Numerical experiments demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach under varying percentage of missingness and contamination, and different sample size. An application to the American Time Use Survey identifies two interpretable clusters corresponding to work-intensive and sociable recreational days, while revealing atypical time-use compositions. In contrast, a conventional Dirichlet mixture model identifies four clusters, reflecting the influence of outliers and an artificial splitting of one cluster.
Comparisons with MCMC indicate that the variational approximation produces clustering results and parameter estimates that are in close agreement with those obtained by MCMC, while requiring substantially lower computational cost.
Missing values, atypical observations, and heterogeneity across latent groups are common sources of complexity in regression data. The contaminated Gaussian cluster-weighted model (CG-CWM) provides a natural framework for handling atypical observations, including outliers and leverage points, in model-based clustering....
This paper addresses the problem of parameter estimation and model-based imputation for multivariate circular data lying on a p-dimensional torus in the presence of missing values. Actually, the periodic nature of the sample space invalidates conventional imputation techniques designed for Euclidean data. Then, we prop...
Learning robust survival models under distribution shift is an important but challenging problem in many applications. In heterogeneous populations, a model that performs well on average may still perform poorly on certain subpopulations, and this issue becomes even more severe when the training data are contaminated b...
Distributional mismatch between the data used to construct a statistical procedure and the population to which it is ultimately applied is pervasive in modern data analysis. We study covariate shift, a fundamental instance of this problem, and develop an adaptive importance-weighted model averaging method for predictio...