Geometric Fluctuations of the $\sin\Theta$ Distance in High-Dimensional Principal Subspace Estimation

Abstract

We investigate the geometric fluctuations of principal subspaces for high-dimensional covariance matrices through the squared Frobenius $\sin\Theta$ distance between the sample and population eigenspaces associated with the $r_p$ largest eigenvalues. An explicit first-order expansion and a central limit theorem are established for this subspace distance. The theory allows the subspace dimension to diverge subject to $r_p=o(n)$, where $n$ is the sample size. It also permits a diverging spectral norm of the population covariance matrix, population spikes of different orders, and repeated or closely spaced spikes. This sharp characterisation captures features of the subspace estimation error that are not reflected in existing perturbation bounds. As applications, we derive an explicit asymptotic expansion for the expected PCA excess risk and a refined error bound for distributed PCA. In both cases, existing upper bounds can increase with the spiked-block condition number when some leading spikes become stronger, whereas our results show that the corresponding estimation errors need not increase and may instead decrease. Numerical experiments reproduce this contrasting behaviour and demonstrate the finite-sample accuracy of our theoretical findings.