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Author

Isaiah Andrews

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#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

Dutch Books for Language Models

A procedure that builds on a theorem due to de Finetti to evaluate the coherence of language model probabilistic forecasts through a procedure that uses linear programs to compute the largest Dutch-book profit, finding substantial evidence of incoherence in language model forecasts.

Isaiah Andrews, Suproteem K. Sarkar · 3 citations

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