Disaster Evolution and Risk Evaluation of Urban Transport Infrastructure under Extreme Rainfall–Flood Scenarios: A Case Study
To investigate the disaster evolution characteristics and associated risks of heavy rainfall and flooding on urban transportation infrastructure, this study takes the extreme rainstorm event in Zhengzhou as a typical case. A multidimensional dynamic risk assessment model is employed to analyze the disaster evolution process and conduct risk evaluation. First, the three-stage evolution process and its characteristics are systematically examined. Then, based on the theory of natural disaster risk elements, a dynamic risk assessment model is constructed. The improved Order of Priority Approach (OPA) is used to determine the weights of multidimensional risk factors, and interval type-1 fuzzy logic is introduced to address the uncertainty of fuzzy indicators. Finally, the overall risk level of the heavy rainfall–flooding disaster chain is calculated and evaluated. The results indicate a high-risk level, which is consistent with the findings of the field investigation report, thereby validating the feasibility of the proposed disaster chain evaluation method combining multiple models. This analysis provides a theoretical basis for future studies on similar urban storm flood risk scenarios.