Large language models are increasingly used as decision aids whose probability judgments shape downstream choices. Whether those judgments carry a systematic directional tilt has been hard to detect: calibration metrics aggregate unsigned errors, and naturalistic uncertainty offers no ground-truth probability. When an LLM rates a startup's success at 70% but its failure at 15%, the missing 15 points expose a distortion no aggregate score flags. We introduce OptimismBench, which detects directional bias with inverted pairs: each scenario elicits both P(success) and P(failure), and asymmetry between the two framings yields a signed bias score without ground truth. Across 16 models from 8 providers, fourteen are optimistic; pessimism appears only in Anthropic's frontier tier. Eleven matched base-versus-chat pairs across four families show post-training sets the sign of the bias, with opposite shifts in different families. The pattern survives prompt, temperature, perspective, and self-debiasing ablations. A seventeen-model six-language comparison further shows model identity dominates language, with inter-model variance at 4.7x inter-language variance. We release 3,870 items across 10 languages for per-model directional-bias auditing. When alignment makes a model more helpful, it also tilts its probabilities; downstream pipelines inherit the tilt by default.
Sparse autoencoder (SAE) features are used to interpret and steer large language models, yet whether a feature's causal role is stable across SAE families remains untested. Single-token features that activate on one vocabulary item provide the diagnostic case where ground truth permits direct comparison. We analyze 3.9M features across six models and three SAE families using zero-ablation at full layer depth. Single-token features cluster 4.7x tighter in decoder space and concentrate in early layers (Layer 0 in GPT2-Small; L0-L4 in Gemma). Ablating them yields Benjamini-Hochberg-significant logit reductions in 178 of 208 full-layer conditions, with depth controlling whether damage cascades downstream or shapes the output directly. Cross-family causal differences exceed within-family scale effects: on the same base model, GemmaScope and BatchTopK features remain causally anchored, while LlamaScope features are locally redundant. The target token's rank recovers to within 2x baseline 96-98% of the time after the same ablation, and a controlled activation-function comparison reverses sign within the same model, leaving training recipe as the residual candidate. Cross-family interpretability claims are therefore sensitive to training methodology, not just activation function or scale.
Seonglae Cho, Zekun Wu, K. Costa et al.· 1 citation
Concurrent multi-agent coding promises division of labor across modules, robustness through redundancy, and parallel exploration at the natural granularity of multi-file projects. Realtime collaborative editing protocols solve this coordination problem for human teams via Conflict-free Replicated Data Types (CRDTs), but the LLMs underneath generate one token at a time and existing multi-agent coding systems inherit this serial limit: they either sequence agents through phase handoffs or pool independent samples without coordination, and a single agent abandons up to half of hard tasks with a one-file stub-and-exit. AgentRoom is a realtime collaborative editing protocol for concurrent coding agents. Its runtime layer exposes file-level claim, status, and broadcast as MCP tools on a CRDT-merged shared filesystem. Five frontier coding-CLI models ran four backend coding tasks, with cross-language checks in Python DevBench and Rust+axum. For CLI-stable models, AgentRoom with 2 agents abandons fewer tasks than Solo and has less run-to-run variation. At matched-compute, one positive mean LLM-judge contrast puts AgentRoom over parallel-merge. The other contrast, a bundle probe, puts full AgentRoom above each partial case: an ordering rather than a percentage split. Coordination, not parallelism or CRDT-merge, bears the load.
Behavioral topology is shaped more by the deployment harness than by the LLM, providing a model-agnostic structural primitive for safety auditing and runtime monitoring, and addresses both prediction goals.
Seonglae Cho, F. Fernandez, Umar Mohammed et al.· 0 citations