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Shao-Qun Zhang

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#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

SGA: Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Step Forecasting in Time Series Foundation Models

The proposed SGA first characterizes the topology of all potential forecast branches using a directed acyclic graph, such that the graph complexity bounds the uncertainty of multi-step TSFM forecasts, and then precisely measures the graph complexity by integrating both topological information and TSFM-inherent stochast...

Xin-Miao Hu, Shuang Liang, Cheng Feng et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

GRUET: Quantifying Uncertainty of Agentic Reasoning-and-Acting Processes

The Graph-based Reasoning UncErtainty in Trajectories (GRUET) method for the uncertainty quantification of ReAct is presented, comprising turn-level reasoning uncertainty quantification and trajectory-level uncertainty aggregation; the former precisely quantifies reasoning uncertainty via modeling the reasoning space s...

Shuang Liang, Xin-Miao Hu, Shao-Qun Zhang · 0 citations

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