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#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

A Critical Audit of Spatiotemporal Forecasting Benchmark Datasets and Models

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are routinely employed for spatiotemporal forecasting, yet their performance across widely used benchmark datasets is inconsistent. Here, we perform an audit of dataset properties and baseline models to assess the quality of the benchmarks, and the robustness of the conclusions drawn from t...

Kenneth Martin, Simon Heilig, Asja Fischer et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Learning Probabilistic Filters with Strictly Proper Scoring Rules

Bayesian filtering of partially and noisily observed dynamical systems seeks to infer the evolving conditional distribution of the state of a dynamical system given observations, in an online fashion. This Bayesian filtering distribution is rarely available as a supervised learning target. However, one can often use th...

Eviatar Bach, Ricardo Baptista, Jochen Br\"ocker et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Express Language Modeling

We introduce a new tool, Express, for converting a non-causal attention approximation into a causal approximation with matching approximation guarantees. When combined with the state-of-the-art Thinformer approximation, Express improves upon the best known causal attention guarantees, delivering $\log^{3/2}(n)/s$ appro...

Albert Gong, Annabelle Michael Carrell, Raaz Dwivedi et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Fast and Efficient Asynchronous Gossip Algorithm for Robust and Non-Smooth Convex Decentralized Learning

Asynchronous primal-dual methods for decentralized non-smooth convex optimization often require each node to maintain $\mathcal{O}(d)$ auxiliary variables, where $d$ is its degree. This dependence on degree increases memory requirements and can amplify the effects of stale information, especially in dense networks. Mot...

Anna van Elst, Olivier Fercoq, Igor Colin et al. · 0 citations

Intersectional Fairness via Mixed-Integer Optimization

It is argued that true fairness requires addressing bias at the intersections of protected groups, and a unified framework that leverages Mixed-Integer Optimization (MIO) to train intersectionally fair and intrinsically interpretable classifiers is proposed.

Jiri Nemecek, Mark Kozdoba, Illia Kryvoviaz et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Quadratic Direct Forecast for Training Multi-Step Time-Series Forecast Models

The design of learning objectives is central to training time-series forecasting models. Existing learning objectives such as mean squared error mostly treat each future step as an independent, equally weighted task, which leads to the following two challenges: (1) they overlook the label autocorrelation effect among f...

Hao Wang, Licheng Pan, Yuan Lu et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Open access Oct 2026

FreDF: Learning to Forecast in the Frequency Domain

Time series modeling presents unique challenges due to autocorrelation in both historical data and future sequences. While current research predominantly addresses autocorrelation within historical data, the correlations among future labels are often overlooked. Specifically, modern forecasting models primarily adhere...

Hao Wang, Licheng Pan, Zhichao Chen et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

Prediction-powered inference for time series across space

This work provides reliable point estimates and confidence intervals given: short labeled time series (across spatial locations), a longer unlabeled time series, and an imperfect predictor of labels given covariates, and shows the method outperforms natural alternatives.

Shahzar Rizvi, David R. Burt, Vishwak Srinivasan et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

Steering Diffusion Models to Rare Events with Sequential Monte Carlo

Diffusion models are increasingly used as surrogates for expensive simulators in weather prediction, molecular dynamics, and materials design. In these models, computing the probability $p_0[E]$ of an event $E$ is difficult, especially when the event of interest is rare. A stable estimate using Monte Carlo becomes comp...

A. Subedi, Tim Reichelt, Christopher Williams et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

Feature Information Dynamics in Diffusion

Diffusion models generate data through a continuum of denoising problems, and are widely observed to reveal coarse structure before fine detail. Yet, this intuition is mostly empirical and qualitative. We introduce feature information dynamics, an information-theoretic framework for localizing when a feature is generat...

Jia-Shu Pan, Tao Zhang, Yun Huang et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

Information-Dense Synthesis for Molecular Discovery

This work proposes a method to efficiently search large regions of molecular space using algorithmically controlled stochastic synthesis, and designs and makes complex mixtures, test them as a pool, then deconvolute the molecule-activity map.

K. Jakobsen, Eli N. Weinstein · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

High-Dimensional Statistical Inference for Sparse Support Vector Machines

Using a replica-symmetric high-dimensional characterization, an inferential framework for sparse support vector machines when the sample size and number of features grow proportionally is developed, which provides confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for individual features and enables false-discovery-rate-control...

Peng Zeng, Han-Wen Huang · 0 citations

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GPT-Lab Nov 3, 2026

Sovereignty Is the Option to Leave

Is your company’s AI sovereign? A practical guide for CIOs on AI vendor lock-in, EU Data Act switching, cloud sovereignty, and testing your exit plan before you need it. The post Sovereignty Is the Option to Leave appeared first on GPT-Lab.

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