The external validity of a study is the extent to which its findings generalize to unseen experimental conditions, such as datasets. We formalize the results of a study together with its research question, and define external validity as the probability that two independent and same-sized replications of the study prod...
We discuss three simple connections between generative diffusion and optimal transport. First, the joint law of the data and of their Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noising is, at every time, the solution of an entropic optimal-transport problem, at a temperature set by the noise level. Backward diffusion can consequently be read...
Correlation matrices combine nonlinear positive-definiteness constraints with a simultaneous row-column permutation symmetry. Their generation therefore involves two distinct problems. First, every output must remain on the correlation elliptope, irrespective of how its variables are ordered. Second, the generator must...
Uncertainty quantification for electric vehicle (EV) charging demand is essential to turn the increasing pressure of EV adoption on power systems into a source of flexibility. We study a large-scale dataset of public charging stations in Scotland, where demand exhibits a hierarchical structure, organized across multipl...
Guillaume Principato, Yvenn Amara-Ouali, Yannig Goude et al.· 0 citations
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Compression schemes provide a general framework for deriving data-dependent risk bounds for learning algorithms. For learning rules based on preferent compression, existing results upper-bound the risk in terms of a sample-dependent complexity $\boldsymbol{k}$, defined as the cardinality of the compression augmented by...
Time series causal discovery --- the process of detecting causation between time series --- has its roots in signal processing research from over a half century ago. It has since received active and widespread interest, evolving into different forms across domains such as statistics, dynamical systems and machine learn...
Kurt Butler, Damian Machlanski, Michael P. J. Camilleri et al.· 0 citations
We develop a model-free, noise-aware Bayesian clustering framework that constructs a martingale posterior over clusterings from a predictive Bayesian perspective. This avoids explicit likelihood-prior model specification, expensive MCMC sampling, and mode-seeking variational approximations, while accommodating irregula...
Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is a common choice for measuring the discrepancy between time series. It proceeds by finding an optimal warping between timestamps through dynamic programming, which can be slow and is not differentiable. Consequently, several variants have been proposed. Among them, Soft-DTW proposes a smoot...
Pierre Houédry, R. Tavenard, Nicolas Courty et al.· 0 citations
A solid understanding of the predictive success of deep neural networks (DNNs) remains elusive. For example, while many data-dependent metrics exist that seek to predict model quality of DNNs, these metrics may be expensive to compute for large datasets and/or may be impossible to compute when training datasets are not...
Joseph Wilson, Chris van der Heide, Liam Hodgkinson et al.· 0 citations
If a second text corpus were collected from the same population, how much would a predictor's outputs change? We study this question for masked-text reconstruction using a smoothed predictor built from nearby token-pair counts and evaluated over the full 50,257-token GPT-2 vocabulary. Treating each source document as o...
Continuous-time latent state-space models are widely used for irregularly observed time series, typically representing uncertainty through a random initial state followed by smooth ordinary differential equation (ODE) dynamics, or Brownian perturbations accumulated by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). While the...
Vansh Bansal, Min Chen, James G. Scott· 0 citations
Comparing distributions under severe sample imbalance requires effectively using abundant majority observations while retaining sensitivity to differences involving the smaller sample. This challenge is particularly relevant for complex, non-Euclidean data, such as graphs, whose structural characteristics call for flex...
Is your company’s AI sovereign? A practical guide for CIOs on AI vendor lock-in, EU Data Act switching, cloud sovereignty, and testing your exit plan before you need it. The post Sovereignty Is the Option to Leave appeared first on GPT-Lab.