Recent unlearning methods (e.g. NPO, DPO, LUNAR) make use of refusal alignment to suppress forgotten data. However, it has been shown that refusal responses might leave traces of unlearning, and recent attacks have been able to successfully recover some of the unlearned knowledge. In this paper, we uncover a new vulnerability. Existing attacks typically assume that the forgotten prompts are already known to the adversary and focus on recovering their answers. However, we show that the forgotten prompts themselves can be extracted by using the retained data and black-box access to the model. Our attack, Targeted Active Search (TAS), first identifies the forgotten entities by constructing canonical templates and entity pool, and selectively querying the model using the most informative template-entity pair under a limited query budget. Once the entities are identified, TAS instantiates prompt templates with those entities to probe the unlearned model and reconstruct the forgotten prompts. Experiments across three unlearning methods with three datasets and three LLMs shows that TAS recovers the forgotten entity with $100\%$ accuracy and reconstructs up to $95\%$ of forgotten prompts, all while using up to $99.7\%$ fewer queries than naive probing.
Au Ashley Hoi-Ting, Meghdad Kurmanji, William F. Shen et al.· 0 citations
Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) is essential for understanding how environmental conditions shape biodiversity, particularly for destructive pests such as the Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria), whose breeding dynamics are tightly coupled to rapidly evolving environmental conditions. Maxent has become the dominant method for presence-only data, but its reliance on a linear combination of hand chosen feature transforms limits its ability to capture the nonlinear, temporal relationships common in ecological monitoring, where covariates such as precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation indices evolve meaningfully over time. Standard implementations flatten time-series covariates into independent features, discarding sequential structure that carries critical signal. We introduce RNN Maxent, an extension of the Maxent framework that replaces the fixed feature dictionary with a neural network, specifically a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), trained end to end via backpropagation. The approach preserves Maxent's presence only statistical foundations, background normalization, and probability calibration, differing only in that the nonlinearity is learned from data rather than fixed in advance. We apply RNN Maxent to map suitable habitat for the Desert Locust using 50 day environmental time series derived from ERA5 Land, MODIS, and Sentinel 3, maintaining a 7 day gap between covariates and presence records to yield forecasting behavior. Compared against standard Maxent, RNN Maxent improves performance across metrics (ROC AUC 0.862 std 0.036 vs. 0.792; F1 0.671 std 0.056 vs. 0.590).
Alessandro Grassi, Edoardo Kimani Bellotto, Wassim El Azami et al.· 0 citations
State-of-the-art AI weather models have shown impressive medium-range forecast skill and computational efficiency, but suffer two key shortcomings: their forecasts have lower spatial and temporal resolution than the best physics-based models and they are exclusively initialized with and trained on analysis data. As a result, they cannot directly make use of observations, and any biases in the analysis are inherited by the forecast. WeatherNext 3 addresses these shortcomings and establishes a new state-of-the-art for probabilistic medium-range forecasting skill. First, WeatherNext 3 generates new forecasts every hour (rather than every 6 hours like traditional global models) by ingesting low-latency geostationary satellite data. Second, WeatherNext 3's temporal and spatial resolution are on par with physics-based global models, with hourly time steps and 0.1 degree resolution for single-level variables, including solar radiation and cloud cover. Third, WeatherNext 3 moves beyond traditional analysis variables by learning to predict satellite-derived precipitation estimates, as well as tropical cyclone and station observations. Modelling sparse station data allows WeatherNext 3 to make 2m temperature and dewpoint predictions at any location and time, conditioned on local geographical features, with substantially lower error than competing global models, even when evaluated against unseen stations. Together, WeatherNext 3's capabilities move operational AI-based weather forecasting beyond emulating the traditionally distinct stages of data assimilation, forecasting and post-processing, which helps to further push the frontier of performance and granularity for global weather prediction.
Stephan Rasp, Boris Babenko, Dominic Masters et al.· 0 citations
Existing theories derive neural scaling from data geometry or a specified data-model spectrum, but systems trained on the same data can scale differently when architecture or optimization changes the representations they can efficiently reach. We introduce Coupled Scaling, a task-conditioned framework in which finite-budget scaling depends on the relation between task structure and the geometry accessible to an architecture-optimization system. In a solvable mode-truncation model, loss separates into target energy outside architectural support and an unresolved supported tail. For an arbitrary priority order, the residual lies between the best-N supported tail and the tail beyond the largest completed high-value prefix. If the cumulative-tail and coverage log-rates are $\gamma_{A,T}$ and $\rho_{A,O,T}$, the residual exponent lies in $[\rho_{A,O,T}\gamma_{A,T},\gamma_{A,T}]$. Under bounded off-prefix gain, the completed prefix is rate-determining and $\alpha_{A,O,T}=\rho_{A,O,T}\gamma_{A,T}$; for $a_{A,T,j}\asymp j^{-b_{A,T}}$, this gives $\alpha_{A,O,T}=\rho_{A,O,T}(b_{A,T}-1)$. A fixed-kernel specialization derives the training-time exponent from the near-zero tail of a task-weighted spectral measure defined independently of the loss fit. The framework separates architectural support from finite-budget acquisition and motivates two tests: static task-relevant geometry should track loss at a common budget, while multiscale geometry should track coupling-specific exponent ordering, including reversal across contrasting tasks. An audit of released emergence trajectories identifies the controls needed for a direct factorial test that measures geometry separately from the scaling fit.
Jie Wang· 0 citations
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Anomaly detection in Internet of Things (IoT) networks presents unique challenges due to the diversity of devices, lack of labeled data, and domain variability across environments. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for multivariate time-series anomaly detection that leverages adversarial learning and contrastive loss within a sequence-based Variational Autoencoder (VAE) architecture. Our method enables zero-shot domain adaptation by jointly optimizing domain-invariant latent representations and semantically structured embedding spaces, without requiring labeled data or raw feature transfer. To address the heterogeneity of IoT deployments, we introduce encoder and decoder adaptor layers that align feature distributions across domains while preserving contextual semantics. Additionally, we propose a destination-based segmentation strategy to better model real-world communication structures in IoT traffic. Our framework is comprehensively evaluated on six distinct datasets spanning industrial, enterprise, general-purpose, smart home, and military automation domains across 44 transfer scenarios. Experimental results demonstrate strong zero-shot generalization in several cross-domain settings and competitive performance against a contrastive domain-adaptation baseline under realistic, heterogeneous, and privacy-constrained IoT conditions.
Restricted eigenvalue (RE) bounds govern stable recovery by norm-regularized estimators. For isotropic sub-Gaussian measurements, the benchmark sample size is $1+w(A)^2$, where $w(A)$ is the Gaussian width of the normalized descent cone. The COLT 2015 open-problem note (Banerjee et al., 2015) asked whether the same law follows for heavy-tailed designs from a uniform small-ball condition alone. We give an explicit and systematic negative answer to the general question as formulated there: the proposed law fails in its full dimension-free, arbitrary-set form, and the missing obstruction is simultaneous threshold occupancy. A constant-width polyhedral descent cone with fixed small-ball constants has zero empirical RE on every sample path up to half the ambient dimension. More generally, every finite range space admits exact threshold encoding in an arbitrarily narrow spherical cap and a lift to a full polyhedral descent-cone section. For every fixed threshold VC dimension $d$, as $\beta\downarrow0$, the sharp worst-case sample complexity is $\Theta(\beta^{-1}[d\log(1/\beta)+\log(1/\delta)])$. The separation persists under exact isotropy and all finite moments: on the same constant-width cone, Gaussian measurements succeed with $O(1+\log(1/\delta))$ samples, whereas an isotropic heavy-tailed design fails pathwise for $n\lesssim\sqrt{p/\log p}$. Gaussian smoothing yields an everywhere-positive $C^\infty$ density while retaining arbitrarily poor RE. Under isotropy, a distribution-free fallback governed by affine dimension times squared enclosing radius is sharp on this family.
This paper examines the relationship between the parameters of autoencoder models and the statistical properties of the data on which they are trained. Autoencoders are defined as models with an encoder-decoder architecture, trained to reconstruct input data through a compressed latent representation. It is proposed that the model parameters can be viewed as a dense vector representation of the corresponding sample. To test this hypothesis, a theoretical and experimental study is conducted in which a vector representation is formed based on the spectral characteristics of the autoencoder parameter matrices. Theoretical analysis shows that the singular values of the model parameter matrices are related to the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of the training data, ensuring the transfer of information between the data space and the parameter space. Experimental results on the CIFAR-10 and FashionMNIST datasets confirm that the resulting vector representations allow for a high degree of accuracy in distinguishing between models trained on different data subsets, without resorting to complex vector generation algorithms or using the original samples. These results suggest that the parameters of trained autoencoders can be viewed as sample representations.
Maria Nikitina, Anton Bishuk, Oleg Bakhteev· 0 citations
Personally Identifiable Information (PII) detection is a foundational component of data protection infrastructure where missed entities constitute direct privacy and security risks. Although modern PII systems report strong performance on standard benchmarks, we show that these evaluations mask substantial robustness failures under realistic distribution shifts encountered in deployment. Rather than comparing state-of-the-art accuracy, we study how different PII detection paradigms fail under noisy, unstructured, and informal inputs. We construct a stress test benchmark spanning seven categories of natural distribution shift and evaluate representative systems from three widely deployed architectural families: encoder-based NER (SpaCy), rule-based hybrid detection (Presidio), and generative LLM extraction (Qwen2.5-3B).
All three exhibit significant degradation on out-of-distribution inputs, but with distinct and complementary failure modes. Encoder models primarily fail on unseen surface forms and boundary detection, rule-based systems fail on non-standard formats, and LLMs exhibit entity-type confusion and generation instability. These results show that aggregate benchmark scores obscure deployment-critical weaknesses and that no single architecture is uniformly reliable across PII categories. Motivated by these findings, we propose a hybrid detection pipeline with a QA-driven feedback loop for iterative risk mitigation, and release our benchmark to support OOD-aware evaluation of PII systems.
Accurate cloud resource forecasting is essential for proactive resource provisioning, maintaining Quality of Service (QoS), and reducing operational costs in dynamic cloud environments. The existing forecasting approaches predominantly estimate future CPU workload directly from historical resource traces, which often overlook the relationship between customer service demand and subsequent resource consumption. This study proposes a two-stage integrated forecasting model that explicitly models this dependency by first forecasting customer service requests, expressed as Transactions Per Second (TPS), and subsequently estimating future CPU workload from the TPS forecast. Both the forecasting component and resource prediction component employed the XGBoost model within a cascaded learning architecture, complemented by adaptive online retraining using an expanding-window strategy to address concept drift in continuously evolving cloud workloads. The proposed work was evaluated using real-world traces collected from a private cloud environment comprising ten applications. Experimental results demonstrate robust forecasting performance by achieving Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) below $7\%$ for most applications, with the best-performing application achieving an MAE of $0.7372$, RMSE of $1.1866$, SMAPE of $3.57\%$, and an R2 of $0.9185$. Horizon-wise drift analysis confirmed stable recursive forecasting behavior with controlled error accumulation across a 60-step prediction horizon. Compared with the conventional direct CPU forecasting method, the proposed two-stage integrated model gives improved forecasting robustness, computational efficiency, and interpretability, making it well-suited for proactive resource management and intelligent auto-scaling in cloud computing environments.
Ashir Javeed, Anton Borg, H{\aa}kan Grahn et al.· 0 citations
The performance of Flow Matching largely depends on the quality of the coupling between the source and target distributions. However, independent coupling often leads to path crossings and local velocity ambiguity, while OT-based couplings typically incur high construction costs. To address this challenge, we propose Quantile AlignTree Flow Matching (QAT-FM), an efficient structured coupling strategy that constructs a hierarchical coupling between a Gaussian prior and the target data distribution via a quantile-aligned tree structure. QAT-FM constructs the coupling in $\mathcal{O}(Nd\log N)$ time and supports per-pair source sampling with $\mathcal{O}(d)$ complexity, enabling scalable training for large-scale high-dimensional generative tasks. Theoretically, we prove that the QAT coupling satisfies marginal consistency, induces non-crossing linear interpolation paths, and consistently improves path separation at intermediate times compared with independent coupling, thereby alleviating local velocity ambiguity. QAT-FM further extends naturally to conditional generation, enabling structured conditional coupling while preserving global Gaussian alignment. Experiments across diverse benchmark datasets demonstrate that QAT-FM achieves competitive generative performance while substantially reducing coupling construction cost.
Junyi Lin, Mengyu Li, Jingxuan Hu et al.· 0 citations
Differentiable causal discovery methods increasingly encode expert priors as forbidden-edge constraints enforced by an Augmented Lagrangian (ALM) penalty, on the assumption that a data-adaptive relaxation mechanism will discount and eventually override a rule the data consistently contradicts. We show this design, which we call \emph{guide, not bind}, fails for two independent, precisely characterized reasons, and that directly repairing both restores it only partially. First, sequential penalty-ramping ALM suppresses a wrongly-forbidden true edge before any counterfactual check can detect it: we give three necessary conditions any adaptive relaxation must satisfy to avoid this (Proposition~\ref{prop:conditions}), prove that DADU---the natural relaxation rule this paper introduces as the object of study---violates all three (Corollary~\ref{cor:dadu_failure}), and confirm the failure across 3{,}072 training runs spanning graphs from 4 to 32 nodes, where a single wrong prior suppresses a true edge in 87--97\% of trials under DADU. Second, and independent of any fix to the mechanism, we prove in closed form that the standard correlation-matching objective ties a true edge and its reverse to an identical cost of exactly $2r^2$ (Lemma~\ref{lem:tie}), not because the underlying equal-variance model is unidentifiable, but because normalizing to correlation discards exactly the variance information that would make it identifiable; covariance matching instead separates the two directions by a provable margin of at least $w_0^4$ (Lemma~\ref{lem:separation}).
Sairam Sundararaman, Sara Girdhar, Manit Narasimha Murthy et al.· 0 citations
Diversity is a widely observed factor in the resilient function of collective systems, yet the type of diversity that matters depends on the properties and failure modes of the system. This distinction is important for systems composed of multiple language models. Different models may be treated as independent components even when their behaviour and failures remain strongly correlated. Assessments of language-model populations using semantic similarity demonstrate limited semantic diversity, but this captures only differences in the meaning of observed outputs. We argue that a more fundamental notion of model diversity is generative-process diversity, the differences between processes capable of generating the observed outputs. Drawing from Algorithmic Information Theory, we use Normalised Compression Distance between raw model outputs, residualised against a permutation control, as a measure of inferred generative-process diversity. Across 38 language models, this measure identifies population structure missed by semantic similarity and predicts cross-task variation in chance-corrected correlated failure among model pairs across ten disjoint benchmark families, beyond semantic similarity and model-pair capability. The cross-benchmark partial rank association is $-0.216$ with a 95% interval of $[-0.309,-0.122]$, and the estimate is negative on all ten benchmarks. These results indicate that increased generative-process diversity is associated with reduced correlated failure in model pairs that is not attributable to semantic similarity or capability. Inferred generative-process diversity offers a novel and practical approach for investigating diversity of multi-model systems in safety-relevant contexts.
A new machine-learning framework aims to improve the success rate of computational protein design while moving away from results that reproduce sequences found in nature.
MIT News · Artificial Intelligence· news.mit.eduAug 24, 2026
A new method for surgically removing training examples from a model reveals that as datasets grow, the link between what a model learns and what it produces dissolves.
