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#machine learning Preprint Aug 2026

Diffusion-Based Refinement for Kilometer-Scale Probabilistic Precipitation Nowcasting

Localized extreme precipitation is a major trigger of urban flash floods and landslides, yet producing nowcasts that combine fine spatial detail with probabilistic uncertainty remains challenging. Here we introduce exPreCast-ENS, a conditional residual diffusion framework that transforms the deterministic 4 km radar nowcaster exPreCast into a 1 km probabilistic ensemble while correcting systematic forecast errors. Conditioning on both the forecast and preceding radar observations lets the ensemble-mean correct the baseline rather than perturb it, while members represent unresolved fine-scale variability. Over the Korean Peninsula, skill improves with ensemble size. In two high-impact events in 2023, a 30-member ensemble recovers 38-47% of heavy-rain pixels missed by exPreCast while retaining approximately 95% of its correct detections and alarming on under 1% of the pixels it correctly left clear. The method generates a 1-h forecast in 3.4 s on a single GPU and yields consistent improvements on the French regional MeteoNet radar dataset.

Dohyun Park, Changhoon Song, Teng-Yuan Chang et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Aug 2026

Certified Safety Radii in Forecast-Error Space for Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Small Signal Stability-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow via Lifted Spectrahedral Containment

Directly robustifying small-signal stability in AC optimal power flow is challenging since the stability boundary in the original uncertainty space is implicit, highly nonconvex, and changes with the operating decision. This paper exploits an alternative geometry. For a fixed model-specific stability certificate admitting suitable physical lifts, the small-signal stability requirement becomes an affine positive semidefinite constraint in the lifted variables, thereby defining a convex certified safe region. Instead of approximating the nonlinear instability boundary itself, we optimize a sample-wise safe radius in the original uncertainty space and certify, in the lifted space, that the entire power-flow image of the corresponding uncertainty ball is contained in the convex stability region. To this end, a componentwise Perron certificate guarantees existence, uniqueness, and Jacobian regularity of the target AC power-flow branch throughout each ball. An adjoint elimination then provides an exact affine-quadratic representation of the stability-relevant quantities, while rigorous matrix remainder bounds convert their nonlinear variation into finite robust PSD constraints. The resulting radii are certified lower bounds on the distances from empirical samples to failure and can therefore be coupled directly to the distance-based reformulation of a Wasserstein distributionally robust chance constraint, without directly approximating the instability boundary. Numerical studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Ziqi Zhang, Xi Chen · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Aug 2026

Reinforcement Learning for Symbolic Equation Solving

A reinforcement-learning agent that solves symbolic equations step by step, covering both nonlinear closed equations and a controlled class of restricted-open families requiring a change of variables (CoV) such as completing the square is presented.

Kevin P. O. Keeffe · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Aug 2026

Converse and Collision-Based Achievability for Node Localization with Hybrid Distance-Spectral Graph Positional Encodings

A hybrid distance-spectral encoding that combines anchor-distance profiles with quantized low-frequency Laplacian-energy coordinates is studied, showing that hybrid encodings better recover syntactic-tree geometry than distance-only or spectral-only baselines.

Zi-Mo Yan, Yi-Fang Li, Hao Li et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Aug 2026

TPR-Attention for Combinatorial Generalization

This work introduces a new architectural component that embeds structured inductive bias into deep learning: an attention mechanism operating over tensor-product representations (TPRs) that outperforms existing architectural components in combinatorial generalization.

Melisa Civelekoğlu, Isabeau Prémont-Schwarz · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Aug 2026

Supraglacial Lake Fate Is Knowable Long Before the Season Ends

A supraglacial lake on the Greenland Ice Sheet ends its melt season in one of four ways: it drains rapidly through a hydrofracture, drains slowly across the surface, refreezes in place, or is buried by late-season snowfall. Which one occurs decides whether the meltwater reaches the ice bed. Satellite classifiers recover the outcome accurately but only after the season closes, and how much of a season each outcome actually requires has never been measured. We measure it directly: holding the representation and the classifier fixed, we truncate the input at $14$ cutoffs from 1 May to 31 December, retrain at each, and record the earliest cutoff at which each outcome's per-class $F_1$ reaches a fixed target. The outcomes resolve in a consistent order, two of them months early: rapid drainage by 15 July and slow drainage by 1 August, $92$ and $75$ days ahead of the earliest date a full-season pipeline can be computed at all, with buried and refreeze following at $44$ and $30$ days. Five further learners, from a majority-class floor and $54$ summary statistics to a trigger-based early classifier, leave the ordering intact: every learner that produces a per-class trajectory reproduces it despite end-of-season accuracies differing by up to $18$ percentage points, and it survives leave-one-basin-out evaluation, though not the substitution of machine labels for expert ones in an unseen season. Every feature we compute at day $t$ reads only days up to $t$, at a cost of at most $1.3$ percentage points. A monitoring system should therefore not have one release date: rapid drainage can be flagged on 15 July, three months before a full-season pipeline can be computed at all.

Emam Hossain, M. O. Gani · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Aug 2026

Graph4BiLO: Graph Neural Network Approximation for Bilevel Mixed-Integer Linear Optimization

Graph4BiLO is introduced, a graph neural network (GNN) approach for learning bilevel value functions from variable--constraint graph representations that obtains objective values comparable to Neur2BiLO across all tested sizes while avoiding size-specific neural networks.

Jessica D. Elrefaei, Kaixun Hua, Seungbae Kim et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Aug 2026

SMOTE-VAR: An Uncertainty-Aware Oversampling Method for Predicting Depression Remission in University Students

By improving the reliable identification of non-responders, the method provides a robust computational tool to help clinicians rapidly pivot to adjunctive therapies, thereby personalizing and optimizing mental health care pathways.

Dang Nguyen, V. ArunKumarA., Taylor A Braund et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Aug 2026

A Lightweight Phenology-Aware YOLOv5 Framework for Tomato Growth Stage Detection in Resource-Constrained Bhutanese Greenhouse Environments

The proposed Pheno-Lite + Efficient Channel Attention (ECA) architecture, a lightweight, phenology-aware object detection architecture derived from Ultralytics YOLOv5 for tomato growth stage recognition, demonstrates its potential for real-time and climate-resilient greenhouse deployment in Bhutan.

Sherab Gocha, Sou Nobukawa · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Aug 2026

Tracing Generated Samples to Training-Data Clusters in Flow-Matching Models

This work investigates attribution in flow-matching models through a hybrid analytical--learned approach, and uses it to derive trajectory-based attribution scores at the cluster level, which show that semantic similarity constitutes a strong baseline, while the closed-form trajectory-based attribution is competitive in some metrics without requiring counterfactual retraining or model gradients.

Rania Briq, Ohad Fried, Michael Kamp et al. · 0 citations

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GPT-Lab Sep 3, 2026

Adaptive AI Agents in Construction Workflows

Adaptive AI agents can help make BIM data more machine-readable by navigating IFC models, interpreting inconsistent information, and mapping it to defined standards. In this blog, Alok Rawat shares findings from a real-world pilot in construction workflows. The post Adaptive AI Agents in Construction Workflows appeared first on GPT-Lab.

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