Carbon Emissions and Their Impact on Ecosystem Services: A Comprehensive Study

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions have emerged as a major driver of environmental degradation, particularly in rapidly industrializing economies such as China. This study examines the relationship between sectoral CO 2 emissions and key ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, water yield, and biodiversity. However, existing studies have rarely integrated long‐term emission datasets with spatial ecosystem service modeling to examine sector‐specific and regional variations in ecological impacts. CO 2 emission data from the Our World in Data database (1960–2023) are integrated with ecosystem service simulations generated using the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade‐offs) model. The analysis applies statistical techniques, including Pearson correlation, regression analysis, and GIS‐based spatial analysis, to evaluate the relationship between emission sources and ecosystem service dynamics across regions in China. The study focuses on major emission sectors such as coal, cement, oil, and gas, with particular attention to high‐emission provinces including Hebei and Shandong, and ecological restoration regions such as the Three‐North Shelter Forest. The findings indicate that coal‐based emissions constitute the largest share of national CO 2 emissions and are strongly associated with declines in carbon sequestration, water yield, and biodiversity indicators. Spatial analysis further reveals substantial regional disparities in ecological impacts between industrial and afforestation regions. Scenario simulations suggest that a 50% reduction in emissions could significantly enhance ecosystem service recovery, including improvements in carbon sequestration and biodiversity levels. The study provides a spatially explicit framework for understanding emission–ecosystem interactions and offers insights to support region‐specific environmental policy and sustainable development strategies.