Augmenting Expertise in Organizational Foresight: The Role of GenAI in Collaborative Settings

Abstract

This paper investigates the transformative potential of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) in organizational foresight by examining not only whether human−AI collaboration occurs, but how different collaboration designs shape foresight quality. As organizations navigate increasingly complex and uncertain environments, the traditional reliance on human expertise for foresight activities requires re‐evaluation. Drawing on bounded rationality, dual‐process theory, and sensemaking as an integrated set of microfoundations, the paper argues that GenAI roles alter attention, search breadth, and cognitive friction in ways that influence scenario diversity, weak signal detection, assumption surfacing, and strategic recommendation quality. Through a literature review and the application of a 2 × 2 matrix deductive scenarios method, four ideal‐typical roles of GenAI in organizational foresight are identified: Resilience Builder, Ally Insider, Provoking Catalyst, and Critical Outsider. The findings suggest that these roles are best understood as contingent collaboration modes that can be sequenced across different phases of the foresight process, expanding debate on expertise, workflow design, and the conditions under which GenAI strengthens or weakens strategic foresight.