A machine learning-derived intratumoral heterogeneity-related signature predicts the prognosis for and therapeutic response in patients with skin cutaneous melanoma

Abstract

Background Reliable biomarkers for predicting prognosis and therapeutic response in skin cutaneous melanoma (SKCM) remain limited. This study aimed to develop an intratumoral heterogeneity (ITH)-related prognostic signature for SKCM using integrative machine learning. Methods RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data from 472 SKCM patients in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and 214 patients in the GSE65904 cohort were analyzed. ITH scores were calculated using the DEPTH2 algorithm. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified between high- and low-ITH groups [|log2fold change (FC)| ≥1, false discovery rate (FDR) <0.05]. Based on 38 prognostic DEGs identified by univariate Cox regression, we employed an integrative framework of 101 machine learning algorithm combinations to construct prognostic models in the TCGA training cohort. The model with the highest average concordance index (C-index) was validated in the GSE65904 cohort and selected as the prognostic ITH-related signature (PIRS). Associations of the PIRS risk score with tumor mutational burden (TMB), immune cell infiltration, immune checkpoint gene expression, and drug sensitivity were systematically evaluated. Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Cox regression analyses. Results A 38-gene PIRS was constructed using the plsRcox algorithm. Patients with high PIRS risk scores exhibited significantly poorer overall survival (OS) in both the TCGA and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) cohorts. The PIRS was identified as an independent prognostic factor, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.779, 0.734, and 0.756 for 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival, respectively. High-risk samples displayed significantly lower TMB (P<0.05), reduced immune and stromal cell infiltration (P<0.001), downregulated immune function, and decreased expression of immune checkpoint genes. Additionally, high- and low-PIRS risk score groups exhibited distinct sensitivity patterns to different classes of targeted agents. Conclusions The machine learning-derived PIRS robustly predicts prognosis in SKCM patients. Its clinical application is promising for optimizing patient risk stratification and treatment decisions, though further prospective validation is warranted.