Causal Inference under Interference with Learned Exposure Mappings

Abstract

Exposure mappings are often assumed to be known in causal spillover analyses. In environmental settings, however, they are typically induced by transport processes that are not directly observed and must instead be learned from pollution data. We study how uncertainty in learned transport processes propagates into exposure mappings and downstream spillover inference under interference. We compare mechanistic transport models with modern operator-learning approaches, including PDE, PINO, FNO, and GeoPT, using both simulation studies and an empirical analysis of California PM$_{2.5}$ data. In simulations, all four transport models achieved nearly identical pollution prediction accuracy, yet estimated spillover effects ranged from 1.78 to 2.27. Models that more accurately recovered the induced exposure mapping also produced spillover estimates closer to the true effect. Disagreement was modest for regional interventions but substantially larger for localized point-source interventions. The California analysis showed the same pattern: competing transport models produced similar predictions of observed PM${2.5}$ concentrations while implying different spillover effects under hypothetical pollution-control interventions. Our findings suggest that predictive agreement alone is insufficient for reliable causal inference when exposure mappings are learned rather than directly observed.