Estimate then Predict: Convex Formulation for Travel Demand Forecasting

Abstract

Travel demand forecasting is essential for evaluating large-scale infrastructure projects, yet the traditional sequential four-step process can produce inconsistencies across trip distribution, mode choice, and traffic assignment. Although combined models address these inconsistencies, their practical use has been limited by simplified behavioral assumptions, computational burden, and the lack of a unified parameter-estimation framework. We propose a convex programming approach that integrates destination, mode, and route choices within a hierarchical extended logit model. The optimal primal solution characterizes the joint travel-demand equilibrium, while the optimal dual variables recover taste coefficients, alternative-specific constants, and destination- and mode-level scale parameters. The model captures mode correlations through nested logit and route overlap through path-size logit. Its convex structure provides global optimality guarantees and enables efficient solution using off-the-shelf conic solvers. Observed travel patterns are incorporated through moment and conditional-entropy constraints, while the route-level dispersion parameter is calibrated separately using partial link counts. Numerical experiments on eight benchmark networks demonstrate the scalability and computational efficiency of the formulation.