Credit, Liquidity, and Pandemic Shock Effects on Indonesian Banking Profitability from 2010-2025

Abstract

Purpose: This study examines the determinants of banking profitability in Indonesia by analyzing the effects of credit distribution, capital adequacy, liquidity, monetary policy rates, and the COVID-19 shock using a dynamic time series framework.Research Methodology: Monthly data from January 2010 to June 2025 were analyzed using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) approaches. HAC/Newey-West robust standard errors were employed to improve estimation reliability.Results: The findings confirm a long-run relationship between the variables. Credit distribution exhibits dynamic effects on profitability, while liquidity significantly affects profitability in both the short and long runs. The COVID-19 variable negatively affects banking profitability, whereas capital adequacy and monetary policy rates are statistically insignificant. The ECM results indicate a gradual adjustment toward long-run equilibrium.Conclusions: Banking profitability in Indonesia is primarily influenced by liquidity conditions, credit adjustment mechanisms, and external shocks rather than capital adequacy or monetary policy rates.Limitations: This study uses aggregate banking industry data and has limited explanatory variables.Contributions: This study contributes to the banking literature by providing dynamic evidence using high-frequency monthly data and an ARDL-ECM framework incorporating structural pandemic shocks.