The capitalization of Russia’s financial market: current state, dynamics, and prospects

Abstract

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the capitalization of the Russian financial market for 2022–2025 in the context of the transformation of the external economic environment, increased sanctions pressure and structural restructuring of the national economy. The purpose of the study is to identify the key determinants of market dynamics in conditions of pronounced geopolitical and economic instability, as well as to develop practical measures aimed at increasing its stability and investment attractiveness. Using correlation and regression methods, a statistically significant dependence of capitalization on macroeconomic indicators (including GDP dynamics, the level of the key rate of the Bank of Russia, world commodity prices), as well as on institutional factors characterizing the quality of corporate governance and the level of protection of the rights of minority shareholders was revealed. A comparative analysis of the largest Russian issuers and a comparison of indicators with the markets of the BRICS countries was carried out, which made it possible to identify structural constraints and unrealized growth potential. Based on the results obtained, proposals have been formulated to improve the regulatory and legal framework, develop national rating agencies, and gradually strengthen the institutional environment. The presented conclusions are intended to be used by regulators, issuers, and investors in shaping financial market development strategies.