Understanding and managing the impacts of climate change on ecologically and economically important plant species requires integrated modelling approaches. In this study, we developed an environmental modelling and decision-support framework for assessing the current and future habitat suitability of Nepeta persica Boiss. in Fars Province, Iran. The framework combines bivariate models (FR, WofE, IofE) and machine learning algorithms (GLM, GAM, ANN, MaxEnt, XGBoost, ENET) with fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (AHP, TOPSIS, VIKOR), enabling both quantitative habitat forecasting and structured decision support. Results indicated that temperature and elevation are the dominant drivers shaping species distribution. Projections under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios suggest up to 30% contraction of suitable habitats by 2100, accompanied by an eastward and upslope shift. These outcomes provide critical insights for sustainable management, highlighting climatically buffered highlands as potential refugia for conservation and climate-resilient cultivation. By linking model-based ecological forecasting with participatory decision analysis, this research contributes to the development of adaptive management strategies aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 2, 13, and 15), supporting both biodiversity conservation and rural livelihood resilience under global change.
Climate change represents a growing pressure on water resources in semi-arid Mediterranean basins, where rainfall variability, recurrent droughts, and increased anthropogenic use are exacerbating hydrological imbalances. This study offers a combined bibliographic and scientometric analysis of scientific research on climate change and water resource management in the Ghis-Nekor basin (northern Morocco) over the period 2005–2025. The results reveal a significant increase in scientific output, particularly after 2014, reflecting a growing interest in the hydrological impacts of climate change, the vulnerability of water systems, and adaptation strategies. The evolution of themes highlights a shift from descriptive approaches focused on hydroclimatic characterization to integrated frameworks combining risk analysis, sustainable management, and territorial resilience. The Ghis-Nekor basin appears to be a sensitive area marked by irregular water supplies, demographic pressure, and fragile ecosystems, making it a representative case study of regional challenges. Analysis of collaboration networks highlights a growing scientific dynamic, although international visibility remains unevenly distributed. This research highlights the need to strengthen interdisciplinary approaches, improve the integration of climate projections into water planning, and consolidate adaptive governance mechanisms. It thus positions the Ghis-Nekor basin as a strategic laboratory for articulating scientific production, public policy, and integrated water resource management in the face of climate change.
Nihad El Idrissi, Zakaryae Koubaa, Mohammed Thaiki et al.· E3S Web of Conferences· 0 citations
Traditional species distribution models can identify climatically suitable areas but offer limited guidance for spatially explicit agricultural planning. In this study, we constructed a three-dimensional coupled framework of “suitability prediction–habitat quality filtering–ecological security screening” by integrating BIOMOD2 ensemble modeling, InVEST habitat quality assessment, and ecological security evaluation to identify candidate cultivation zones for Piper nigrum L. in China under climate change. Based on occurrence records and environmental variables, we simulated potential suitable habitats under current and future climate scenarios, identified key climatic drivers, and delineated candidate zones by overlaying habitat quality and ecological security levels. The results show that the current total suitable area for P. nigrum is 87.76 × 104 km2, with low-, moderate-, and high-suitability areas accounting for 37.28 × 104 km2, 25.12 × 104 km2, and 25.36 × 104 km2, respectively. Temperature seasonality and winter cold stress were identified as the dominant factors shaping the suitability pattern. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area shows an increasing trend, with highly suitable areas expanding toward the coastal regions of South China and the low-latitude hilly zones. After overlaying with habitat quality and ecological security, climatically suitable but ecologically fragile or intensively disturbed areas were effectively excluded, and the current candidate cultivation zones were identified as mainly concentrated in the southern Yunnan–southern Guangxi–Guangdong–Hainan coastal region. This framework enables a transition from identifying climatic suitability to collaborative climate–habitat–ecology screening, providing a scientific basis for sustainable cultivation and germplasm management of P. nigrum, and is transferable to priority cultivation area identification for other tropical cash crops.
Background Global biodiversity and ecosystem services are threatened by invasive alien plants. Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), a globally problematic weed, has rapidly spread across Xinjiang's Ili Prefecture—particularly in Xinyuan County—and presents serious obstacles to local agriculture, animal husbandry, and human health. However, in the context of climate change, the fine-scale distribution dynamics and key driving mechanisms of this species remain poorly understood. Methods Based on field survey data from Xinyuan County, a Kuenm-optimized MaxEnt model was combined with four shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios from CMIP6 to systematically simulate the spatiotemporal evolution of the potential habitat of ragweed at present and from the 2030s to the 2090s. Results (1) The optimized model exhibited exceptional predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.991; Partial ROC ratio = 1.959, p < 0.001; empirical omission rate = 0.0267), with precipitation seasonality (BIO15) and isothermality (BIO3) as the primary environmental factors constraining ragweed distribution. (2) Current high-risk zones predominantly exhibit distributions along river valley alluvial plains and road networks. Overlay analysis revealed that mountain steppe grasslands face the most severe stress, followed by low–middle mountain meadow grasslands, whereas mountain meadow steppe is least affected. (3) In the future, the total area of highly suitable ragweed habitats will decrease, with a significant decrease in the area of core suitable zones (mountain steppe). Under most future scenarios and periods, the distribution centroid is projected to exhibit predominantly westward and northwestward passive displacement (maximum displacement: 0.829 km under the SSP585 scenario in the 2050s), driven by the contraction of suitable habitat in low-elevation river valleys rather than by active colonization of high-elevation zones. High-elevation alpine grassland ecosystems (mountain meadow steppe and mountain desert steppe) consistently demonstrated strong resilience against ragweed invasion across all projected periods and scenarios. Discussion This study reveals the response pattern of ragweed, characterized by "contraction in low-elevation core areas, passive westward–northwestward displacement of the distribution centroid, and maintenance of the alpine barrier." A zoned control strategy focused on implementing physical eradication and replacement restoration in river valley core areas and establishing early warning systems in the transitional zones between mountain grasslands and meadows is recommended to safeguard regional ecological security.
Gulsum Rixit, Rukeya Sawut, Alimujiang Kasimu et al.· Frontiers in Plant Science· 0 citations
Stem-boring pests are increasingly affected by climate-driven environmental changes, which can alter their distribution patterns and pose growing threats to forest ecosystems. This study aims to assess the potential distributional shifts and ecological niche dynamics of two economically important longhorn beetles native to China,
Anoplophora chinensis
and
Anoplophora glabripennis
, under current climatic conditions and future climate scenarios (2050s: 2041–2060; 2090s: 2081–2100), thereby providing a framework for climate-driven pest risk assessment. Our ensemble modelling approach showed high predictive performance for both species, with AUC values exceeding 0.97 and TSS values above 0.84. The mean diurnal range (Bio2) and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) were identified as the most influential variables for the distributions of
A. chinensis
and
A. glabripennis
, respectively. Climate change projections indicate that climatically suitable habitats for both species are likely to expand, although the extent of habitat overlap is projected to decrease substantially, potentially reducing spatial co-occurrence and promoting greater ecological differentiation between the two species. Niche analyses further revealed that the current Schoener’s D and Hellinger’s I values between the two species are 0.41 and 0.59, respectively, indicating a moderate level of niche overlap. Moreover, the hypervolume of
A. glabripennis
was larger than that of
A. chinensis
, indicating occupation of a broader climatic niche characterized by a wider range of temperature and precipitation conditions, which may reflect greater ecological flexibility. These findings suggest potential climate-driven divergence in the spatial distributions and ecological niches of the two species, highlighting the need for species-specific monitoring and management strategies under future climate change and providing valuable guidance for surveillance planning and quarantine prioritization in emerging risk areas.
Ruigang Yang, Zhilin Chen, G. Xie et al.· Frontiers in Forests and Glo...· 0 citations
