Integrating ensemble species distribution modeling and ecological niche dynamics to assess climate-driven distributional changes of two major forest pests (Anoplophora chinensis and Anoplophora glabripennis) in China
Abstract
Stem-boring pests are increasingly affected by climate-driven environmental changes, which can alter their distribution patterns and pose growing threats to forest ecosystems. This study aims to assess the potential distributional shifts and ecological niche dynamics of two economically important longhorn beetles native to China, Anoplophora chinensis and Anoplophora glabripennis , under current climatic conditions and future climate scenarios (2050s: 2041–2060; 2090s: 2081–2100), thereby providing a framework for climate-driven pest risk assessment. Our ensemble modelling approach showed high predictive performance for both species, with AUC values exceeding 0.97 and TSS values above 0.84. The mean diurnal range (Bio2) and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) were identified as the most influential variables for the distributions of A. chinensis and A. glabripennis , respectively. Climate change projections indicate that climatically suitable habitats for both species are likely to expand, although the extent of habitat overlap is projected to decrease substantially, potentially reducing spatial co-occurrence and promoting greater ecological differentiation between the two species. Niche analyses further revealed that the current Schoener’s D and Hellinger’s I values between the two species are 0.41 and 0.59, respectively, indicating a moderate level of niche overlap. Moreover, the hypervolume of A. glabripennis was larger than that of A. chinensis , indicating occupation of a broader climatic niche characterized by a wider range of temperature and precipitation conditions, which may reflect greater ecological flexibility. These findings suggest potential climate-driven divergence in the spatial distributions and ecological niches of the two species, highlighting the need for species-specific monitoring and management strategies under future climate change and providing valuable guidance for surveillance planning and quarantine prioritization in emerging risk areas.