Impact of Climate Change on the Spatial Dynamics of Habitats Suitable for the Genus Clusia L. in Peru

Abstract

Climate change is expected to reshape the climatic suitability of Neotropical plant taxa, particularly in topographically complex regions such as the tropical Andes, yet no nationwide assessment exists for the genus Clusia L. (Clusiaceae) in Peru. We modeled its current and future potential distribution using MaxEnt, based on 245 spatially thinned occurrence records (GBIF) and bioclimatic variables from WorldClim 2.1 selected through Pearson correlation and variance inflation factor filtering. Model complexity was tuned with ENMeval using spatial block cross-validation, and future projections were generated under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 across three Global Climate Models. The model showed acceptable, stable performance (training AUC = 0.824, test AUC = 0.825), with elevation and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) as the leading predictors, together with Bio19 and Bio3 accounting for over 80% of the total contribution. Currently, only 16.61% of Peru is climatically suitable (medium–high) for the genus, concentrated discontinuously along Andean slopes and inter-Andean valleys. Both future scenarios project progressive contraction and fragmentation of suitable habitat, most severe under SSP5-8.5, where high-loss areas reach 50.43% of the evaluated territory by 2081–2100; these projections should be interpreted as plausible scenarios rather than validated forecasts, given the absence of independent data for future periods. Habitat gains were restricted to higher elevations, consistent with an altitudinal range shift. These results provide a coarse-scale spatial baseline that highlights broad patterns of climatic vulnerability for the genus, intended to guide exploratory conservation attention and future species-level research in the Andean region, rather than site-specific management decisions.