This work uncovers short context additions that redirect 61.4%-73.2% of each decision system's initially correct decisions toward a wrong option fixed in advance, exposing a weakness in current decision models.
Abstract
An ordinary-looking background detail can turn a correct model decision into a confident mistake. We demonstrate this fragility in four decision systems, including Jev, across seven datasets covering knowledge, reasoning, and tool routing. Within 64 accepted target evaluations per decision, we uncover short context additions that redirect 61.4%-73.2% of each system's initially correct decisions toward a wrong option fixed in advance. The additions supply background or procedural information rather than explicit answer-selection instructions, leaving the original question and choices intact. We construct them through probability-guided context optimization, which uses shifts in the option distribution to refine surrounding text under naturalness and answer-preservation constraints. Redirection affects initially confident decisions, often produces high-confidence wrong choices, and transfers across models. In blinded human evaluation, 91.6% of 250 sampled successful contexts are judged natural, answer-preserving, and free of decisive answer-changing evidence by a majority of three independent annotators. These findings expose a weakness in current decision models: context that looks entirely compatible with an input can redirect the choices that agents, routers, and evaluators rely on.
This work instantiate this framework with p, a hybrid estimator that combines verbal confidence with spectral answer diversity computed from the negative von Neumann entropy of sampled answer embeddings, and achieves higher average AUROC than verbal confidence and sampling-based uncertainty while using half as many sam...
Rounak Sharma, Ananya B. Sai, Soumyabrata Pal· 0 citations
Certo is a small non-generative decision model (Qwen3-4B): it scores candidate actions from their text and returns a probability, instead of generating an answer, and how much rule-sensitivity survives that move, and whether it can be trained back.
D. Rajput, Nirdesh Chauhan, S.Rao Kosaraju· 0 citations
Findings show why decision systems need joint evaluation of accuracy, confidence calibration, and probability coherence in the workflow used by an application.
Rule decisions such as content moderation, advertising compliance, and eligibility checks combine several conditions, exemptions, and missing-information cases, and an error can be fixed only once the failing condition is known. We introduce SemTree, a framework that represents a rule decision as a semantic decision tr...
Probability-only models, which TypeSafe calls System One models, return calibrated probabilities for fixed choices in milliseconds and generate no text. We study one such model, Jev, through two tasks that require decisions under tight constraints. In bullet chess, a bot that places Jev's judgment inside Stockfish sear...
Mohamad Yazan Sadoun, S. Sharif, Y. Banad· 0 citations
Related blog posts
MIT News · Artificial Intelligence· news.mit.eduOct 15, 2026
A new computational approach reveals how cells communicate to assemble into tissues. This could accelerate stem cell engineering, improve disease models, and inform therapies.
Microsoft Research Blog· microsoft.comOct 15, 2026
Zero-knowledge proofs can verify computing results without rerunning workloads or exposing sensitive data. Magnetar helps bring them into the mainstream with support for standard programming languages, major speed gains, and quantum-resistant security. The post Proof-based general-purpose computing with Magnetar appeared first on Microsoft Research.
MIT News · Artificial Intelligence· news.mit.eduSep 24, 2026