A multi-criteria approach to risk assessment and mitigation in UAE oil and gas construction projects: a hybrid Delphi–Fuzzy AHP framework

Abstract

Oil and gas construction projects (O&GCPs) are among the most complex and high-stakes endeavors in the world. In the UAE, these projects operate under demanding safety and regulatory environments, yet persistent risk-related disruptions continue to undermine project performance. Existing risk management frameworks rarely integrate prioritization with mitigation strategy evaluation, leaving practitioners without structured guidance under conditions of uncertainty. This study addresses that gap by developing a hybrid Delphi–Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) framework for UAE O&GCPs. A systematic literature review identified 51 candidate risk factors, of which 32 organized across six categories achieved expert consensus through a two-round Delphi process involving ten UAE-based industry professionals. FAHP was subsequently applied to derive priority weights for each risk dimension and associated mitigation strategies. Results reveal a strongly hierarchical risk structure in which health, safety, and workforce wellbeing emerged as the dominant criterion with a weight of 0.502, followed by regulatory and site risks at 0.266, while financial factors ranked lowest. Alignment with Health, Safety, and Environment (HSE) standards emerged as the single most critical mitigation sub-criterion, confirming that safety compliance drives project continuity in this sector. These findings provide practitioners with a prioritized, evidence-based roadmap for allocating resources and designing mitigation strategies in UAE O&G construction.