Climate and Cropland Jointly Shape Future Habitat Suitability of Major Stored-Product Callosobruchus Pests

Climatic Suitability of Cornus officinalis Across Paleoclimatic, Current, and Future Climates: Implications for Conservation and Climate-Informed Cultivation

Cornus officinalis Sieb. et Zucc. is a medicinal and ornamental woody plant whose distribution and production may be increasingly affected by climate change. This study assessed its climatic suitability under paleoclimatic, current, and future conditions to provide a climatic basis for cultivation planning, introduction, and germplasm conservation. An optimized MaxEnt model was developed using 381 spatially filtered occurrence records and five environmental predictors. Model complexity was tuned using spatial block cross-validation, and future projections for 2081–2100 were generated from an ensemble of ACCESS-CM2, BCC-CSM2-MR, and CMCC-ESM2 under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. Cold-quarter temperature, warm-season precipitation, mean diurnal temperature range, precipitation seasonality, and slope jointly shaped the predicted distribution. Under the current climate, climatically suitable areas were concentrated mainly in East Asia, particularly central and eastern China, with additional suitable climatic regions in eastern North America and parts of Europe. Suitable area was smallest during the Last Interglacial, expanded during the Last Glacial Maximum, and approached its current extent during the Mid-Holocene. The current suitable area was estimated at 277.247 × 104 km2 and was projected to decrease to 243.689, 206.615, 201.393, and 206.168 × 104 km2 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Existing suitable areas contracted in central China, the southern United States, and southern Japan, whereas climatic suitability expanded northward in parts of China, North America, Japan, and Europe. Suitable-area gains did not offset losses under any scenario, and retention of current suitable areas declined from 52.88% under SSP1-2.6 to 19.74% under SSP5-8.5. Most newly suitable areas were supported by at least two of the three climate models, although greater inter-model variation occurred near some range margins. These findings indicate substantial future redistribution of climatic suitability and identify climatically stable and newly suitable regions that may inform climate-resilient cultivation planning and conservation of C. officinalis.

Future Climate Change May Reduce Suitable Habitat for the Timber Tree Gmelina arborea

Populations of Gmelina arborea (Lamiaceae), a fast-growing deciduous tree widely used in afforestation, agroforestry and timber production, and valued for carbon sequestration and land rehabilitation, are declining across parts of its range due to escalating anthropogenic pressure and climate-driven environmental change. As large-scale planting and restoration programmes increasingly rely on this species, identifying areas where climate conditions will remain suitable is essential for climate-smart site selection and long-term plantation viability. We applied species distribution modelling to quantify the current and projected habitat suitability of G. arborea under present and future climatic conditions proxied through several Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate change scenarios. We used the low-resolution global climate model by the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Climate Modelling Centre, Version 6A, to simulate future climate conditions for the year 2050 across the eastern Indian state Jharkhand. At present, approximately 38% of Jharkhand's area provides suitable habitat for the species; however, projections indicate that this may decline to 17-40% by 2050, depending on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenario. Precipitation of the driest month and mean temperature of the driest quarter were the most influential predictors, indicating that the species is probably highly sensitive to moisture deficits and seasonal climatic extremes that regulate establishment and growth. These results provide a scientific basis for climate-informed management strategies, including targeted site selection, assisted dispersal, and silvicultural interventions, to sustain future restoration and farm forestry initiatives involving G. arborea in vulnerable tropical landscapes.

Climate-Driven Range Shifts in Insect Pests: Redrawing the Global Map of Crop Vulnerability

Rising global temperatures, shifting precipitation regimes, and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide are altering the geographic ranges, phenology, and population dynamics of insect pests that damage the world's major food crops. This review synthesises evidence on the physiological mechanisms, observed range shifts, and projected redistribution of agriculturally important insect species under contemporary and future climate scenarios. Poleward and altitudinal expansions have already been documented across multiple pest taxa, with average latitudinal displacement rates in the low single-digit kilometres per year, and modelling studies project further acceleration under mid- and high-emission trajectories. Case evidence from fall armyworm, cotton leafworm, maize stemborers, and several rice pests illustrates how thermal tolerance, developmental plasticity, and host-plant availability jointly determine the pace and direction of range change. Elevated carbon dioxide modifies host-plant nutritional and defensive chemistry in ways that can either suppress or, in some circumstances, enhance herbivore performance, complicating simple temperature-based forecasts. Economic assessments indicate that warming-driven increases in insect-mediated crop losses could reach double-digit percentage increases per degree Celsius for staple cereals, disproportionately affecting temperate breadbasket regions, while invasive insects already impose costs exceeding tens of billions of US dollars annually worldwide. Species distribution modelling, mechanistic niche models, and hybrid approaches are increasingly used to anticipate these shifts, though model uncertainty, incomplete occurrence data, and neglect of biotic interactions remain persistent limitations. The review closes by identifying priority research directions, drawing overall conclusions for policy and practice, and acknowledging the methodological limitations inherent to a narrative synthesis of a rapidly evolving evidence base.

Risk assessment of Panonychus ulmi to global temperate fruit production under climate change

Comparative Distribution Projections of Hydrophilic and Xerophytic Invasive Species in Turkey Under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios

ABSTRACT Climate change imposes varying pressures on the potential distribution of invasive alien plant species, depending on their specific ecological strategies and physiological tolerances. In this study, the projected potential ranges within Turkey of the hydrophilic Eichhornia crassipes (water hyacinth) and the markedly xerophytic Solanum elaeagnifolium (silverleaf nightshade) were compared under several CMIP6 climate scenarios: SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5. Species distribution models were produced using an ensemble modelling framework combining Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), Random Forest (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) in the R statistical computing environment, yielding excellent predictive performance for both taxa. Model outputs revealed strongly divergent, indeed opposing, spatial responses between the two species. Rather than persisting stably within its current range, E. crassipes is projected to undergo a severe contraction of its suitable habitat across all emission scenarios, as increasing drought severity and the degradation of wetland habitats progressively outweigh any potential benefit from milder winters, restricting the species to highly fragmented coastal micro‐refugia. In contrast, S. elaeagnifolium displays a more complex, non‐linear trajectory: an initial, pronounced expansion into the interior agricultural basins of the Aegean hinterland and Southeastern Anatolia through the mid‐century, followed by a marked contraction by 2100 as extreme thermal and arid conditions exceed the species' physiological tolerance limits, particularly under the higher emission scenarios. These results demonstrate that climate change does not confer a uniform range‐expansion advantage on invasive taxa. Instead, effective management requires dynamic, species‐specific strategies—including early warning systems, strict quarantine measures, and spatially explicit, climate‐informed risk mapping that account for both the timing and directionality of range shifts.

Predicting Climate Change-Induced Habitat Contraction of Disanthus cercidifolius subsp. longipes: A Warning Signal for Endemic Species Conservation

Simple Summary Global climate change is altering the areas where plants can grow, which poses a particularly serious threat to endangered species. To help protect the endangered plant Disanthus cercidifolius subsp. longipes, this study predicted its potential distribution under both current and future climate conditions. We found that the soil water content and minimum temperature of the coldest month, along with precipitation of the driest month, are the key factors determining its suitable habitats. Currently, these suitable areas are mainly located in southern China, primarily in Hunan and Jiangxi, with additional occurrences in neighboring provinces such as Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong. In future projections, compared with the current period, the suitable habitat range of this species contracts in most periods under all three climate scenarios, exceeding the current level only during 2021–2040 under SSP126 and 2061–2080 under the SSP585 scenario. The distribution centroid of D. cercidifolius subsp. longipes generally shifts northeastward under the SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Overall, these findings suggest that the suitable habitat for D. cercidifolius subsp. longipes will change in the coming decades, providing important information for its conservation.