Predicting Climate Change-Induced Habitat Contraction of Disanthus cercidifolius subsp. longipes: A Warning Signal for Endemic Species Conservation

Abstract

Simple Summary Global climate change is altering the areas where plants can grow, which poses a particularly serious threat to endangered species. To help protect the endangered plant Disanthus cercidifolius subsp. longipes, this study predicted its potential distribution under both current and future climate conditions. We found that the soil water content and minimum temperature of the coldest month, along with precipitation of the driest month, are the key factors determining its suitable habitats. Currently, these suitable areas are mainly located in southern China, primarily in Hunan and Jiangxi, with additional occurrences in neighboring provinces such as Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong. In future projections, compared with the current period, the suitable habitat range of this species contracts in most periods under all three climate scenarios, exceeding the current level only during 2021–2040 under SSP126 and 2061–2080 under the SSP585 scenario. The distribution centroid of D. cercidifolius subsp. longipes generally shifts northeastward under the SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Overall, these findings suggest that the suitable habitat for D. cercidifolius subsp. longipes will change in the coming decades, providing important information for its conservation.