Extinction drives emergent metastability in complex ecosystems
Abstract
Extinction is inevitable; every species eventually dies out, impacting the ecosystem it is part of. Over the past few decades, extensive research stemming from the stability-diversity debate has addressed how species diversity contributes to the stability of large ecosystems. However, conventional stability criteria often rely on deterministic frameworks, overlooking the intrinsic population fluctuations that allow any species to go extinct by chance. In this paper, we incorporate demographic stochasticity into large complex ecosystems with a rule-based model. We demonstrate that such demographic fluctuations rapidly prune the low-abundance species from the ecological community, thereby securing higher systemic stability. By developing a bottom-up theory to characterise the statistics of extinction dynamics, we discover that the fraction of surviving species exhibits an anomalous heavy-tailed decay over time, revealing the emergence of remnant communities with robust metastability. Our results highlight that when demographic fluctuations are accounted for, ecosystems self-stabilise by reducing their diversity even when they are predicted to be chaotic in the deterministic limit.