Geopolitical Gas Disruptions and Sustainable Energy-Security Convergence: Comparative Evidence from Germany and Jordan

Abstract

Geopolitical disruptions of natural gas supply have repeatedly forced importing countries to reorganize their electricity systems, yet it remains unclear whether such disruptions are followed by movement of structurally different economies toward comparable energy-security and sustainability outcomes. This study compares Germany, a high-income economy exposed to the 2022 curtailment of Russian pipeline gas, with Jordan, a developing import-dependent economy exposed to the repeated sabotage of the Arab Gas Pipeline after 2011, using harmonized generation-mix and carbon intensity data for Germany over 1985–2024 and Jordan over 2000–2022, supplemented by weekly German market data. The generation fuel mix concentration is measured with a Herfindahl-based Supply Concentration Index (SCI), structural change is estimated with segmented interrupted time series (ITS) regressions inferred through Newey–West heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-consistent standard errors, and the joint security–sustainability position of each country is summarized with a newly proposed Energy Vulnerability–Transition Index (EVTI) that combines diversification, renewable penetration, and carbon intensity performance. The results show that Jordan’s 2011 disruption was associated with a baseline estimated change in its carbon intensity trajectory from +3.32 to −12.63 gCO2/kWh per year and with renewable growth of +2.39 percentage points per year from a near-zero base, while Germany’s 2022 disruption was associated with a temporary carbon intensity shock, visible in a coal reactivation index that peaked at 1.26 and a sixfold wholesale price increase, followed by a policy-supported return to the pre-existing decarbonization pathway. The Germany–Jordan EVTI ratio narrowed from 6.5× in 2014 to 1.8× in 2022, and this convergence is robust to alternative component weightings. The findings indicate that geopolitical gas disruptions, despite their high short-run costs, were followed in both contexts by measurable movement toward more diversified and lower-carbon electricity systems, with direct implications for Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7.