Strategic evaluation of cycling infrastructure in emerging contexts: a case study of high-capacity corridors in Ljubljana, Slovenia

Abstract

This paper presents a cost–benefit analysis (CBA) of proposed high-capacity cycling corridors in the wider Ljubljana area, representing the first such evaluation in Slovenia, where comparable infrastructure has not yet been implemented. The low baseline cycling demand presents methodological challenges for accurately forecasting user response. To address this, a discrete mode choice model calibrated with regional data was applied to estimate modal shifts from private car and public transport to cycling, based primarily on anticipated travel time savings. Long-term projections incorporate behavioral responses to improved infrastructure, such as enhanced comfort, continuity, and perceived safety. The analysis accounts for capital investment, land acquisition, maintenance, and renewal costs, while quantifying external benefits including public health improvements, reduced fuel consumption, lower emissions, and travel time savings. Conservative assumptions were applied throughout, and a detailed sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the robustness of results under alternative cost and uptake scenarios. Findings indicate that the investment shows positive economic performance under the baseline and in most tested scenarios, with greater sensitivity to demand-side parameters than to cost variations. These results highlight the importance of integrating infrastructure planning with complementary policy measures to stimulate early adoption and maximize societal benefits. The study proposes a framework that could be transferable for the appraisal of transformative cycling infrastructure and contributes to the growing body of evidence on active mobility in emerging markets, particularly within Central and Eastern Europe.