Beyond 2030: what sectoral shifts in EU and China reveal about Long Term climate commitments

Abstract

The European Union (EU) and China, as two of the largest economies and emitters, play a pivotal role in the global energy transition. While both economies have committed to ambitious decarbonisation pledges in the form of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term targets (LTTs) under the Paris Agreement, the target-consistent sectoral requirements and associated implementation risks remain poorly understood. This work employs two leading integrated assessment models —PROMETHEUS and Global Change Analysis Model—to compare the sectoral emissions reductions, final-energy mix, electrification rates and technology mixes associated with NDC–LTT-consistent pathways in the two regions. The study uses a scenario based on the combination of NDCs and LTTs to identify post-2030 sectoral shifts across major economic and emitting sectors. The findings show that China relies on concentrated post-2030 power and industrial decarbonisation, while the EU pathway depends more on sustained fossil-fuel exit in end-use sectors. These contrasts point to different implementation risks: China needs early preparation for a compressed post-2030 power–industry transition, whereas the EU needs stronger delivery in residual fossil-fuel use across buildings, transport and industrial heat. By distinguishing robust requirements from model-dependent uncertainties, the analysis identifies where future NDCs should move from aggregate pledges to sector-specific roadmaps backed by policy instruments, investment strategies and implementation capacity.