Geopolitical disruptions in the middle east and global supply chain resilience: implications and mitigation strategies

Abstract

Recent geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East have exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains (GSCs) to concentrated maritime chokepoints, energy flow dependencies, airspace restrictions, cyber incidents, and insurance and regulatory shocks. While existing studies examine specific disruption channels, their interaction as a wider GSC risk system remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by combining supply chain risk management (SCRM), chokepoint geopolitics, weaponized interdependence, thematic coding of event-specific evidence, descriptive analysis of official datasets, and scenario construction. The evidence shows that the disruption has moved beyond episodic rerouting and insurance cost escalation, toward structural pressure on maritime circulation, energy availability, commodity flows, and multimodal logistics continuity, especially around the Strait of Hormuz. Key disruptors include route avoidance, cyberattacks, regulatory and insurance shocks, and energy flow interruption, which contribute to higher oil and freight costs, commodity volatility, delays, and operational uncertainty. The paper evaluates prolonged escalation and periodic flare-up scenarios and reviews preparedness responses by states and firms. We propose a mitigation framework organized around supply chain adaptability and supply chain transparency, highlighting capabilities needed for early warning, rerouting, coordination, inventory planning, and resilient digital monitoring.