Measuring Electoral Persistence in Multiparty Systems: A Multivariate Fractional Regression Approach

Seniority Amidst Change: Parliamentary Turnover and Persistence in 14 European Democracies

Abstract This article provides a multi-dimensional perspective on parliamentary composition in an era of political turbulence. It extends existing turnover models by proposing a three-dimensional framework to understand persistence which includes the structure of the ballot, electoral volatility and institutional caree...

Department of Economics Working Paper Series How Decisive Is the Decisive Voter?

A Dynamic Model of Party Differentiation under Electoral Competition

Why do political parties polarise when most voters remain in the centre? Moving beyond conventional point-based models, we address this classic puzzle by developing a spatial voting framework that conceptualises political parties as continuous ideological distributions. Operating under endogenous turnout, these parties...

Forecast-Necessary Causal Discovery for Nonlinear Political Panel Data: Feedback, Functional Form, and the Dynamics of Democratization

A non-significant coefficient in a dynamic panel model need not imply the absence of a relationship. It may instead reflect heterogeneous effects averaged toward zero, reciprocal dynamics overlooked by a recursive specification, or relationships masked by the omission of correlated covariates. Standard linear estimator...

Multidimensional Inequality in Uzbekistan

This paper presents the first application of a new methodology for estimating multidimensional inequality. The setting is Uzbekistan’s rapidly changing economy; the data comprise the latest rounds of the Uzbekistan Household Budget Survey, 2021–2024. We construct a multidimensional inequality index (MDI) across three...

The effects of microtargeting on the (in)equality of voting rights

The principle of equal voting rights is one of the foundational pillars of all democratic systems. Yet, pure electoral equality is almost impossible to put into practice. The structure of the electoral system inevitably affects the actual value of a vote. For example, differences in constituency sizes, electoral thresh...