Seniority Amidst Change: Parliamentary Turnover and Persistence in 14 European Democracies
Abstract
Abstract This article provides a multi-dimensional perspective on parliamentary composition in an era of political turbulence. It extends existing turnover models by proposing a three-dimensional framework to understand persistence which includes the structure of the ballot, electoral volatility and institutional career opportunities. Using novel comparative data from 14 European democracies (1965–2021), where we distinguish between newcomers, seniors (3+ terms) and super-seniors (5+ terms), we find that persistence is most likely in politico-institutional contexts characterised by candidate control over ballot access, low electoral volatility and unicameral legislatures. Super-seniors seem to occupy an advantaged position, as prior seniority levels strongly shape subsequent ones, and they are also less vulnerable to electoral shocks. At the same time, we descriptively show that none of the countries in our sample provide the full configuration conducive to persistence, suggesting that contemporary democracies contain institutional arrangements that promote circulation within the legislative elite and limit concentration.