The WRF model as a new tool for investigating climate change in the Carpathian region - Near-future projections of temperature and precipitation
Abstract
This study presents the first application of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modelling in Hungary, specifically adapted for the Carpathian Basin. Simulations for the historical (1985–2010) and future (2020–2045) periods were conducted using WRF with a 10 km grid spacing, downscaling the MPI-ESM1-2-LR global climate model from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The future simulation employs the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario. The CARPATCLIM observational dataset was used for model evaluation and bias correction. Expected changes in mean temperature and precipitation between the future and historical periods are assessed based on the bias-corrected WRF simulations. WRF projects a spatially averaged temperature increase of 1 °C in winter, 0.7 °C in summer, and 0.6 °C in spring and autumn over Hungary. Precipitation is projected to increase by 12 percent in winter, 31 percent in spring, and 21 percent in autumn, with no significant change in summer. While future climate change assessments should always be based on multiple model simulations, this study demonstrates the utility of WRF as a regional climate model for the Carpathian region.