Climate change scenarios for Southern and Southeastern Mexico, along with their precipitation projections using the CMIP6 CNRM-ESM2-1 model

Abstract

This study focuses on generating precipitation projections for the IPCC-AR6 future periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2081-2100) in the southern and southeastern regions of Mexico, utilizing the CNRM-ESM2-1 general circulation model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The model selection is based on Andrade-Velázquez & Montero-Martínez (2023). Statistical downscaling was performed using the quantile mapping technique. The trends in the projections for each period were calculated and compared with the historical ERA5 data from 1980 to 2014 using the z-score equivalent (z-eq.). Additionally, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated for future periods across the study regions. The results indicate that dry periods will become longer, while wet periods will vary with latitude and longitude. These findings contribute to the development of adaptation measures to address climate change in this region of Mexico.