ХЛОПКОВАЯ СТРАТЕГИЯ ТАДЖИКИСТАНА: ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЕ ТРЕНДЫ, ЯВНЫЕ И ЛАТЕНТНЫЕ РАЗРЫВЫ И ИНТЕЛЛЕКТУАЛЬНАЯ ЭКОСИСТЕМА АГРОЭКСПЕРТА

Abstract

This study examines the strategic transformation of Tajikistan’s cotton economy in the context of global market trends, declining production capabilities, institutional constraints, and the need to improve farmers’ economic incentives. Drawing on USDA data for 15 cotton-producing countries, Tajikistan’s national statistics for 1991–2025, government programmes, and the author’s earlier strategic research, the paper develops an integrated framework for diagnosing structural weaknesses and identifying economically viable development pathways. The central scientific contribution is a functional-contour approach comprising five interconnected production and market contours and two cross-cutting financial and institutional contours. The framework distinguishes visible losses of productive capacity from latent functional ruptures and explains how disruptions can spread across economic activities, generate secondary constraints, and reproduce unfavorable conditions. The study introduces a comparative typology of national cotton-sector models, a methodology for assessing coherence among government programmes, and an adaptive strategic reconfiguration model. Particular attention is given to farmers’ freedom of crop choice, income protection against international price volatility, transparent pricing, and safeguards against monopolistic purchasing arrangements. The proposed strategy combines market positioning, functional consolidation of farming services without compulsory land consolidation, selective development of domestic processing, international strategic alliances, and targeted initiatives involving Better Cotton and an AI-enabled agro-expert ecosystem. The research builds on the author’s earlier strategic principles while advancing a framework for coherent management, economic resilience, and sustainable value creation. The proposed institutional and technological mechanisms are presented as testable research propositions requiring further empirical validation and pilot implementation.