On the question of forecasting the dynamics of construction of a high-speed rail network
Abstract
Of particular interest to countries developing high-speed rail (HSR) is the phenomenon of German high-speed passenger rail lines. Although in Germany, the development of this type of rail transport began significantly later than in Japan and France – in the early 1990s – statistics from the International Union of Railways show that the German high-speed rail network has now reached a significant extent, surpassed in terms of length in use only by China, Japan, France, and Spain. Therefore, the German example demonstrates that the growth in the length of high-speed rail can be reliably described by a polynomial or exponential function. Based on this, it can be assumed that the final development of the high-speed rail network in Germany will be completed by 2040–2080. The network length will then be approximately 1,900 km. Using the established pattern of network expansion, it is possible to forecast the dynamics of its construction in the Russian Federation and other developed countries that provide (or are expected to provide) partner services to the Russian Federation in this area. Having reliable information in advance about the extent, pace of development, and completion dates of its potential partners’ networks will enable the Russian Federation to build more beneficial economic and political relationships with them or adjust existing agreements.