What Personal Information Improves LLM-Based Next-Location Prediction?

Abstract

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for individual next-location prediction, with personal information easily added to prompts alongside mobility history. Yet the incremental predictive value of such information remains unclear. Using linked sociodemographic records and mobility traces from 5,000 Shenzhen residents, this study separates model responsiveness from predictive value. GPT-5 is the primary model, with GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.6 used for replication. In 1,000 paired prediction instances, models rank 100 candidate destinations with and without age, gender, occupation and income while all other inputs are held fixed. Behavioural history raises top-1 accuracy from 5.6% to 18.5% as prior history increases from zero to six days. By contrast, sociodemographic attributes produce no detectable overall gain, although replacing correct attributes with those of another person reduces accuracy by 5.4 percentage points. Candidate construction also matters, removing distance raises accuracy by 7.7 points under proximity sampling but lowers it by 22.3 points under popularity sampling, with the reversal reproduced across all three LLMs. These findings identify behavioural history as the clearest source of incremental value and show that personal information should be evaluated under matched, explicitly specified conditions before its privacy and governance costs are justified.