Integrating ecological and anthropogenic risk identifies emerging Ebola spillover hotspots

Abstract

The 2026 Bundibugyo virus outbreak emerged in a region with frequent conflict, food insecurity, rainforest and mining-related human mobility in Ituri province in the north-eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Existing ecological niche models have identified regions environmentally suitable for orthoebolavirus circulation but do not explicitly account for anthropogenic conditions that shape opportunities for interspecies contact, such as wildlife-to-human, and zoonotic spillover. Here, we update habitat suitability models for three putative orthoebolavirus reservoir bat species and for orthoebolavirus, and develop an integrated spatial spillover risk framework that combines ecological suitability with anthropogenic drivers, including human settlement, mining activity, bushmeat-related activities, forest loss, and conflict. We find that the updated model reveals previously under-predicted suitability in eastern DRC, and that the integration of anthropogenic factors with orthoebolavirus habitat suitability improves the prediction of historical zoonotic spillover locations. Boyce Index (measure of spatial predictive accuracy) increases from 0.78 to 0.97 when ecological suitability was combined with the built environment, while mining- and bushmeat-based scenarios showed the greatest enrichment of observed spillover events. We also find a temporal association of the relative contribution of habitat suitability and anthropogenic factors, with mining showing the largest and most consistent effect over the last decade, and conflict acting as a secondary amplifying factor whose apparent contribution has grown in recent periods. Together, these findings demonstrate that ecological suitability alone does not fully characterize landscapes vulnerable to Ebola zoonotic emergence and highlight the value of integrating environmental and anthropogenic information to strengthen One Health surveillance, epidemic preparedness, and targeted public health interventions in the DRC and neighboring countries.