Sustainable livelihood effects of the OVOC-Agroforestry programme in rural Indonesia

Abstract

This study evaluates the One Village One CEO (OVOC) Agroforestry Programme in Garut Regency, Indonesia, by examining whether participation was associated with multidimensional changes in household livelihood capacity. A baseline, endline quasi-experimental Difference-in-Differences design was applied to 328 observations from 82 partner households and 82 comparable non-partner households across four villages. The Sustainable Livelihood Index combined human, social, financial, physical, and natural capital indicators using min–max normalisation and equal weighting. Unadjusted estimates show a significant programme-associated increase of 5.695 points in the overall index, with gains of 8.399 points in human capital and 13.853 points in social capital. Covariate-adjusted estimates controlling for age, gender, and household size produced similar results for the overall index, human capital, and social capital. Financial capital remained statistically non-significant, while physical and natural capital were more sensitive to model specification. Village-level patterns also indicate larger livelihood gains among partner households, although effects varied across local contexts. The findings suggest that integrated village-based agroforestry programmes may generate early measurable effects through knowledge, mentoring, farmer organisation, and collective engagement. Short-term evaluation should distinguish capability and institutional outcomes from slower-moving material and environmental outcomes while maintaining longer-term support for markets, finance, infrastructure, and sustainable land management.