Evaluation of ARIMA, ARIMA-LSTM, LSTM, and CNN-LSTM Models for Daily Air Quality Index Forecasting in Jakarta

Abstract

Increasing air pollution in urban areas, particularly in DKI Jakarta, has made a reliable air quality prediction system increasingly essential for environmental control and public health risk management. The Air Quality Index (AQI) exhibits complex and fluctuating patterns, requiring forecasting methods capable of capturing both linear and non-linear. This study aims to conduct a comparative analysis of statistical, deep learning, and hybrid models for AQI forecasting using daily AQI data from Jakarta during the 2023–2025 period. The dataset includes polutant parameters such as , , , , , and CO. The proposed models consist of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network–Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM), and a hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model. The research methodology includes data preprocessing, normalization using Min-Max Scaling, sequence generation using the sliding window approach, model training, and evaluation using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The experimental results show that the CNN-LSTM model achieved the best forecasting performance with MAE, RMSE, and MAPE values of 4.54, 6.03, and 13.83%, respectively, followed closely by the LSTM model. Meanwhile, the ARIMA model produced the lowest performance, and the hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model did not outperform the standalone deep learning models. These findings indicate that deep learning approaches, particularly CNN-LSTM, are more effective in capturing the complex dynamics of urban air pollution data and have strong potential to support air quality forecasting and pollution control systems in Jakarta.