A Case Study of India’s Transport Sector Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Pathways: Scenario Analysis Using LEAP

Abstract

The transport sector in India is expected to continue to grow over the coming decades, which has led to concerns regarding the sector’s energy needs and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Although measures such as the electrification of vehicles, improvements in fuel efficiency and a move to more energy-efficient modes of transport are widely regarded as important mitigation strategies, there has been less investigation into their combined effect on the sector’s energy demand and the trajectory of its greenhouse gas emissions. This case study looks at how these measures, when taken together, could reduce energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions from India’s transport sector by 2050 under two different future scenarios. The two scenarios are called Business-as-Usual, where current trends are assumed to continue till 2050, and Ambitious, where the identified interventions are adopted at a faster pace. The results show that at the same level of transport activity projected for both passengers and freight, the Ambitious scenario has 13% less energy demand and 30% lower greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 relative to the Business-as-Usual scenario. This highlights the necessity of timely and targeted measures in the sector to shape the future profile of the sector’s energy demand and emissions, in line with India’s development and climate goals.