Spatiotemporal Dynamic Evolution, Influencing Factors, and Spatial Spillover Effects of Heterogeneous Energy Consumption in Liaoning Province Under the Dual-Carbon Goal: Implications for Sustainable Regional Development

Abstract

This study examines heterogeneous energy consumption in Liaoning Province under China’s dual-carbon goals, which operationalize the energy-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 7 and SDG 13), extending the sample to 1985–2024. Kernel density estimation characterizes distribution dynamics; a Kaya-based LMDI decomposition quantifies contributions of energy structure, intensity, per-capita output, and population; a semi-parametric time-series model estimates factor associations with a flexible time trend; and a spatial Durbin model on a 30-province panel (2000–2024) assesses spillovers. Consumption grew from 63.25 to 259.85 Mtce (3.69% annually), decelerating markedly after 2012. The LMDI attributes 192% of the increase to per-capita output growth, offset by a −104% intensity effect, with a small net structure effect (+4.9%). In the semi-parametric model, coal share and real GDP are significantly associated with consumption (a semi-elasticity of −0.90 for the coal share and an elasticity of 0.43 for real GDP), and the fitted smooth time component captures unobserved temporal variation not explained by the included covariates. The SDM estimates a modest spatial autoregressive coefficient (ρ = 0.055), positive direct effects of GDP and industrial structure, and significant negative indirect effects of neighbors’ GDP and industrial share, indicating competitive rather than complementary interprovincial energy relationships. Mechanisms such as resource siphoning remain hypotheses for future research. The findings inform sustainable development policy for legacy industrial regions: sustaining efficiency gains, decarbonizing the power supply, and coordinating interprovincial industrial planning.