Comparative Analysis of Wildfire Spread Models Under Differing Environmental Conditions in Central Europe

Abstract

Wildfires are an increasing threat in Central Europe and pose challenges for protective forests and areas at the wildland–urban interface (WUI). Understanding, describing and predicting fire behaviour is therefore becoming more relevant for fire management. This work aims to reconstruct the fire spread behaviour of past fire events occurred under differing environmental conditions with selected fire spread models. The three fire spread models Farsite, SimtableTM and Prometheus were selected according to a list of predefined properties they were expected to fulfil. Subsequently, they were tested under different environmental conditions and evaluated against documented perimeter of past fire events. The focus of the analysis was on the spatial perimeter to quantify metrices such as over- and underestimated areas in percent, Sørensen–Dice coefficient and the Jaccard similarity coefficient. Farsite showed the best overall results in both regions. Simtable performed well in steep and complex terrain but produced underestimations in flat terrain. Prometheus lagged, likely due to inadequate parametrization of fuel data, which is a key input parameter in fire spread modelling. As Farsite is readily accessible, it has the greatest potential for further application and more in-depth research. For higher reliability, additional empirical data on fire behaviour are needed to develop custom fuel models or refine current adjustments used to simulate fire spread.