Analysis of structural shifts in the Russian financial market

Abstract

Subject. Structural shifts in the Russian financial market. Objectives. To analyze structural shifts in the Russian financial market. Methods. Methods of statistical and dynamic analysis of time series of financial indicators were applied; a systems approach, as well as comparative and trend analysis, was used. Results. A shift in focus from banks to the sector of other financial organizations and public administration bodies has been revealed. Stagnation of the insurance sector and the loss of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation’s active role as an anti‑crisis player have been recorded. Structural imbalances have been identified: the dominance of the non‑financial sector and the underdevelopment of the insurance segment. A decline in the effectiveness of monetary transmission has been detected against the backdrop of recovering business lending activity amid persistently high risks of household overborrowing. Significant structural risks have been determined: concentration of debt burden in the public sector and among non‑financial organizations, overheating of retail lending, low efficiency of liquidity transmission to the real sector, and stagnation of the insurance market. Successful development of the financial market requires proactive measures aimed at diversifying the debt and equity markets, strengthening supervision over fast‑growing segments, and stimulating high‑quality lending and debt burden management. Conclusions. The study results will be useful for the regulator, the government, and financial institutions when developing measures to reduce volatility and ensure the long‑term stability of the financial market.