Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use Dynamics in the Yıldız Mountains Basin, Türkiye: Strategic Evaluations From an Ecological Restoration Perspective
Abstract
This study analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use and land cover changes in the Yıldız Mountains Basin between 1995 and 2025 and simulated future landscape trends for 2055. Controlled classification results obtained from Landsat Thematic Mapper and Operational Land Imager imagery were combined with the Cellular Automata–Markov model, and land transitions were quantitatively examined over the past 30 year period to generate projection-based estimates for future land cover. The model suggests that forest areas could increase from 85.65% in 1995 to approximately 97.69% in 2055, while agricultural areas are expected to decrease from 10.35% to 0.40%, and pasture areas are expected to decrease from 3.14% to 0.07%. These projected changes may be associated with rural population decline, agriculture abandonment, and natural succession, which can promote forest regeneration and ecological resilience. The projections indicate that forest ecosystems may continue to expand while preserving spatial continuity under conditions of limited human-driven land use. Overall, the findings highlight that the Yıldız Mountains Basin demonstrates strong ecological resilience, with natural restoration processes likely to dominate in the long term.