Projecting Agricultural Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: A GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation Method

Abstract

Agricultural vulnerability to sea-level rise (SLR) has attracted increasing attention due to its profound implications for food security and livelihoods. Kien Giang, the largest agricultural province in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, has faced escalating challenges from climate change (CC), particularly SLR. This study utilizes Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to assess agricultural vulnerability in 2004 and project future scenarios for 2030 and 2050, and propose protection zones to support sustainable land-use planning. A novel GIS-based Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) framework is presented to assess the cumulative impacts of six factors, such as salinity, salinity duration, flood depth, flood duration, drought, and precipitation. These factors are pivotal in determining the spatial distribution and severity of agricultural vulnerability. The results reveal five distinct vulnerability classes (i.e., potential, low, moderate, high, and extreme), which are projected to cover 3.12%, 54.35%, 28.37%, 13.16%, and 1% of the region in 2030, respectively. By 2050, these vulnerability classes are projected to account for 1.73%, 45.83%, 39.67%, 11.25%, and 1.52%. Coastal districts, such as Kien Luong, An Bien, An Minh, and Vinh Thuan, have been identified as the most vulnerable regions within the study area. The new GIS-based MCE approach not only quantifies agricultural vulnerability but also provides actionable insights for policymakers. The study recommends the establishment of four protection zones to enhance agricultural sustainability and resilience. Furthermore, the research’s findings underscore the importance of optimizing crop calendars and implementing adaptive measures to mitigate the risks posed by CC and SLR. These strategies are essential for ensuring the long-term sustainability of agricultural practices in the region.