Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Urban Sprawl and Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in Urban and Rural Settlements of Niger State, Nigeria

Abstract

Urban sprawl has become one of the most significant manifestations of land use and land cover (LULC) change in developing countries, with far-reaching implications for environmental sustainability, ecosystem services, and urban planning. This study examined the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban sprawl and LULC changes in selected urban (Mokwa, Minna, and Kontagora) and rural (Muwo, Garatu, and Rafin Gora) settlements of Niger State, Nigeria, between 1994 and 2024, and projected future urban sprawl up to 2054. Landsat satellite imagery for 1994, 2004, 2014, and 2024 was processed and classified into three major LULC classes: built-up, vegetation, and bare ground using supervised classification techniques within a Geographic Information System (GIS) software (ArcGIS 10.1). Change detection analysis was employed to quantify the extent and pattern of urban sprawl, while the Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model was used to simulate future urban expansion scenarios for 2034, 2044, and 2054. The results revealed substantial expansion of built-up areas across all settlements. Among the urban centres, Kontagora recorded the highest increase in built-up area (219.2%), followed by Mokwa (205.3%) and Minna (136.7%). In the rural settlements, Muwo exhibited the highest proportional growth (333.2%), followed by Garatu (283.4%) and Rafin Gora (95.5%). Conversely, vegetation cover declined considerably across the study area, with Muwo experiencing the highest vegetation loss (90.8%). The CA–Markov projections indicate that urban expansion will continue through 2054, with Minna remaining the dominant urban growth centre (increased by 14,320.8 km² of built-up area) and rural settlements increasingly undergoing peri-urban transformation. Model validation produced high overall accuracies ranging from 93.16% to 96.23%, with Kappa coefficients between 0.87 and 0.94, confirming the robustness and reliability of the projection model. The study concludes that urban sprawl is a major driver of landscape transformation in Niger State and recommends sustainable land use planning, vegetation conservation, and effective urban sprawl management strategies to mitigate future environmental challenges.