Analysis of Factors Associated with Road Traffic Accidents and Prediction of Risk Severity

Abstract

Road traffic accidents pose a significant threat to life and property. However, the multitude of contributing factors makes it challenging to pinpoint the most critical ones, thereby hindering effective prevention strategies. Therefore, this study conducts relevant work using the UK Department for Transport’s 2019 road traffic accident datasets. To investigate the distribution characteristics of accidents across various dimensions (person, vehicle, road, environment, and accident configuration), we first preprocessed the data. Missing values were imputed using a chained random forest-based multiple imputation method. To identify key contributing factors, we employed an integrated approach combining Bayesian-optimized random forest, Cramér’s V correlation test, K-modes clustering, and frequency statistics. This framework enabled the exploratory identification of potential high-risk scenarios for both non-operating and passenger vehicles. Subsequently, we applied a constraint-based Apriori algorithm to analyze correlations across these dimensions and temporal factors, revealing significant associations between accident severity and the examined attributes. Finally, a Bayesian-optimized LightGBM model was built to predict accident risk levels. External validation using the 2022 UK dataset, combined with interpretive analysis, confirmed the model’s strong generalization ability.